Super Typhoon Ragasa is forecast to maintain its intensity of level 17, gusting above level 17 for the next 24 hours. Mr. Nguyen Van Huong - Head of Weather Forecast Department, National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting - provided comments on the development of this storm.
Sir, what is the forecast for the path and intensity of super typhoon Ragasa, is there a big difference between scenarios?
- It can be determined that this is a very strong storm, likely to enter the East Sea tonight, September 22.
This is one of the 6 strongest storms in the past 50 years in the East Sea and is likely to be stronger than super typhoon Yagi in 2024.
When entering the East Sea, the storm will have a complex movement direction. There are currently two scenarios for the storm.
Scenario 1, the storm will move west-northwest towards the south of the waters of Guangdong (China). With this scenario, the storm will rub against mainland China, the intensity will weaken to level 2 - 4 when it enters the Gulf of Tonkin.
Scenario 2 is worse, the storm will move westward, entering the Gulf of Tonkin with very strong intensity, thereby causing impacts such as heavy rain and very strong winds for the Northern and North Central regions.
In addition, a very notable weather pattern during the time that Typhoon Ragasa crossed Zhejiang Island (China) into the Gulf of Tonkin on September 25-26, a cold air mass in China moved down, affecting the direction, intensity, and impact area of the storm. Therefore, we will continue to update information in the coming time.
What are the forecasts for the notable impacts of super typhoon Ragasa, sir?
- At sea, from September 22, the North East Sea area has begun to be affected by storm Ragasa with the intensity of strong storms of level 8 - level 9, near the center of strong storms of level 15, gusts of level 17, waves over 10m high. With such waves, all ships, including those with large loads, can be affected by the storm's circulation.
From September 24, when the storm had not yet moved into the Gulf of Tonkin, it began to affect this area with strong winds of level 8, near the storm's center, strong winds of level 12 - 14, gusting to level 15 - 16. This was accompanied by thunderstorms and very rough seas.
On land, there are currently two scenarios for the impact of Ragasa. However, the affected areas will still be the North and North Central regions with a very wide area of impact causing widespread heavy rain.
The coastal strong wind zone will extend from Quang Ninh to Ha Tinh, even expanding to the north of Quang Tri province.
With such a strong impact on both rain and wind, what recommendations do you have for storm response in the coming days?
- We have specifically warned of the western circulation impact of Typhoon Ragasa. When the storm is still very far away, the coastal areas of the Gulf of Tonkin - provinces from Quang Ninh to the north of Quang Tri, including the southern coastal areas such as Lam Dong to Ca Mau, Ca Mau to An Giang are likely to have thunderstorms before the storm. Coastal boats are extremely dangerous, people are absolutely not subjective.
People in the focus of the storm-affected areas are the Northern regions, Thanh Hoa, Nghe An, Ha Tinh, people need to have timely plans to reinforce their homes to cope with the impact of the upcoming strong storm.
Sincerely thank you!
