At the launching ceremony of the National Action Month on Population 2024 on December 10, Deputy Minister of Health Tran Van Thuan emphasized that population work is facing many difficulties and challenges, directly affecting the lives, society and sustainable development of Vietnam at present and in the future.
"Maintaining the replacement fertility rate nationwide is not really sustainable, there is a trend of low fertility," said Deputy Minister Thuan.
In 2023, the fertility rate is estimated to be 1.96 children per woman, the lowest in history and is expected to continue to decline in the following years. The ideal replacement fertility rate is 2.1 children per woman.
Vietnam is currently the third most populous country in Southeast Asia, after Indonesia and the Philippines, and the 15th most populous country in the world. However, its population growth rate has continuously decreased from 1.7% in 1999 to 1.14% in 2019 and 0.85% in 2023.
According to the General Statistics Office, in the average birth rate scenario, by 2069, Vietnam's average population growth rate will be zero. In the low birth rate scenario, in 35 years, Vietnam will face a negative population growth rate.
Vietnam's average population in 2023 is estimated at 100.3 million people, an increase of nearly 835,000 people compared to the previous year. In the 10 years from 2013 to 2023, Vietnam's population increased by an average of about one million people each year.
The rate of increase in the sex ratio at birth has been controlled, but it remains high and shows no signs of decreasing. In 2023, this ratio will be 112 boys/100 girls, a slight decrease compared to 2022, while the natural ratio is about 105/100.
Gender imbalances have a negative impact on future population structure and a surplus of men. In 2020, the General Statistics Office predicted that Vietnam will have a surplus of 1.5 million men aged 15 to 49 by 2034 and a surplus of 1.8 million by 2059 if the gender imbalance at birth remains high. The lack of women creates pressure for girls to marry early, which can easily lead to dropping out of school to start a family and increase trafficking in women.
Finally, the population is aging rapidly and will soon pass the golden population period. In 2011, Vietnam officially entered the population aging period and is one of the countries with the fastest aging rate in the world. It is forecasted that by 2038, our country will enter the aging population period, with one in five people over 60 years old.
Population aging poses serious challenges to economic growth, social security, labor, infrastructure design, especially in the field of health care. The elderly suffer from many non-communicable diseases that require lifelong treatment such as blood pressure, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and dementia. Population aging also reduces the working-age population structure, changes the occupational structure, and increases the economic burden on young workers.
Vietnam's population also faces many problems with early marriage, consanguineous marriage, pregnancy and childbirth among minors, stature, physical strength, and quality of life that need to be improved more... Meanwhile, the organization of the population work apparatus is not stable, lacking unity among provinces and cities, and investment resources for population work are not commensurate with the requirements and assigned tasks.
Mr. Matt Jackson - UNFPA Representative in Vietnam - said that besides challenges, Vietnam's population sector has also achieved many achievements. People now live longer, exceeding the target of reducing maternal mortality rate. The rate of modern contraceptive use among women aged 15-49 has increased, reaching more than 60%, contributing to improving reproductive health for everyone.
The goal of the population sector is to shift the policy focus from family planning to population and development. Therefore, the Ministry of Health is drafting the Population Law and guiding documents for implementation, expected to be submitted to the Government and the National Assembly in the near future.
