In North Carolina, nearly 4.5 million voters set a record early voting in the state to elect either Republican Donald Trump or Democratic candidate Kamala Harris as the next US president. Georgia voters also set a record with 4 million early voting. In Pennsylvania, 1.7 million people voted by mail amid a growing dispute over whose mail-in ballots should be counted. Overall, nine US states saw more than 50% of eligible voters cast early ballots.
According to Michael McDonald, a professor of politics at the University of Florida who tracks voting, early voting data suggests that overall turnout this year will likely range from the 60% of eligible voters who voted in 2016 to the two-thirds of eligible voters who voted in the 2020 election. While overall turnout may be slightly lower than the modern-day record high set in the 2020 election, it will still be enough to put the country on track to hit record highs compared to most previous years.
As the United States enters one of the most important weeks in recent political history, officials across the country have made every effort to ensure the safety of the election, including new safeguards designed to protect election officials themselves. These moves are aimed at preventing violence like the January 6, 2021, riot at the Capitol following the results of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
Election officials in the United States have also faced major challenges in this year’s election. A key county in the battleground state of Pennsylvania failed to deliver thousands of mail ballots to voters, while another county in the state was found to have rejected invalid voters. Part of the passwords for voting machines were compromised in Colorado. However, officials say these issues were quickly identified and resolved, a sign that the election system is working. For example, a county in Pennsylvania added an extra day for early voting.
The high turnout of early voters in the second consecutive presidential election adds to the unpredictability of this year’s race for the White House, and it also exposes a paradox of modern politics, according to the New York Times. Armed with more data on who has voted early, campaigns can more easily see trends and understand which groups of voters to target in their frantic last-minute campaign efforts.
As New York Times writer Nick Corasaniti notes, those data are essentially set against a backdrop of no historical comparison because American voting has changed so much since the 2020 presidential election. That election kicked off a new process for electing a president, with a wholesale shift to early voting. The 2020 vote also had the added distinction of taking place during an unprecedented pandemic, which forced voters to make their choices.
The paradigm shift in the US election has both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris's campaign teams working to gain momentum in early voting. In particular, Donald Trump's campaign has changed its message, calling on voters to vote early.
