For foreign countries directly and indirectly involved in what has been and continues to be happening in Syria, the victory of HTS and the collapse of the Assad regime have created a new political situation and security, power and influence. Therefore, all relevant parties are now rushing to deploy troops and set up battle lines for the new game in Syria.
HTS has established a transitional government and has been very clever, whether because of strategy or because of its true nature. HTS has not challenged the US, Israel and the West, has not openly praised Türkiye, and has not urged Russia to close its military bases in Syria and withdraw all Russian troops from Syria.
Although HTS is not willing to share power in Syria with two other powerful armed groups in Syria, the Syrian National Army (SNA) - which has long been backed by Türkiye like HTS - and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) of the Kurds in Syria, but it also does not provoke these two forces.
It seems that HTS intends to give its current top priority to establishing a government and administration within the territories it currently administers, stabilizing the situation, and seeking diplomatic recognition from the outside world to legitimize the new regime as the successor to the old regime in terms of international law.
However, there is a risk of a new civil war breaking out at some point in the future. HTS and SNA are both backed by Türkiye, and Türkiye has long made no secret of its strategic goal of using HTS and SNA to destroy the SDF, completely and permanently destroying the Kurdish aspirations for an independent state in the current border area between Iraq, Syria and Türkiye.
In this new game in Syria, the US and Israel are on the same side as Türkiye in terms of reducing the influence of Russia and Iran in Syria. The difference in views and strategic interests lies in the fact that the US and Israel must find every way to prevent the formation of a new extremist Islamic regime in Syria. The US will conduct heavy airstrikes in Syria to eliminate the remaining IS fighters residing in Syria and the US will prevent HTS and SNA from pursuing the SDF and Kurds in Syria.
Israel took this opportunity to move deeper into Syrian territory, creating a security buffer zone in Syria and not allowing the military potential of the Assad regime to fall into the hands of the current forces in Syria.
Russia is waiting to see how this new game can be most beneficial without affecting Russia's progress in the conflict in Ukraine.
Iran now seems to have no choice but to join the new game in Syria through supporting the SDF and the Syrian Kurds.
