The latest storm/low pressure information from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said that at 2:00 a.m. on October 8, the center of low pressure 10a (near the East Sea) was at about 12.2 degrees north latitude, 117.4 degrees east longitude, 305km west of Coron, Palawan, within the Philippine forecast area (PAR).
It is forecasted that the low pressure will not strengthen into a tropical depression and may dissipate within the next 12 hours from 2:00 a.m. on October 8.
PAGASA is also monitoring another tropical depression outside PAR. At 2:00 a.m. on October 8, the center of the tropical depression was located at about 23.9 degrees north latitude, 147.4 degrees east longitude, 2,650 km east-northeast of Luzon.
The strongest wind near the center of the tropical depression is 55 km/h, gusting to 70 km/h. In the next 24 hours, the tropical depression will move north at 15 km/h and is unlikely to enter PAR.
PAGASA's weather bulletin warns that Bicol, Quezon, Ilocos, Cordillera administrative regions, Cagayan Valley and Aurora as well as Metro Manila are forecast to experience partly cloudy skies with scattered thunderstorms due to easterly winds. Flash floods or landslides may occur due to moderate to heavy rains.
PAGASA said on October 7 that the southwest monsoon period has ended and cold winds will soon blow from the northeast.
According to PAGASA, the southwest monsoon has weakened significantly over the past few days. PAGASA also noted that a high pressure system has strengthened over East Asia, gradually changing weather patterns in the Philippines.
“With these developments, the southwest monsoon season has officially ended. The Philippines is now transitioning to the northeast monsoon season, which will be declared in the coming weeks,” PAGASA added.
The northeast monsoon signals cooler weather. The northeast monsoon usually lasts from October to February or March. It brings cool, dry air to the Philippines and can also bring rain to the eastern part of the country.
PAGASA is also monitoring the possibility of La Nina developing in the tropical Pacific. PAGASA previously said there is a 71% chance of La Nina forming in September-November 2024 and potentially lasting until January-March 2025.
For the Philippines, La Nina could bring more rain and more storms. The Philippines has been hit by 10 storms so far in the 2024 typhoon season.
In its weekly typhoon forecast from October 14-20, 2024, PAGASA forecasts a low pressure area that may form at the eastern boundary of the Philippine typhoon forecast area (TCAD), with the possibility of the low intensifying into a typhoon.
