The latest storm/low pressure information from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said that at 2:00 a.m. on October 8, the center of low pressure area 10a (near the East Sea) was at about 12.2 degrees north latitude, 117.4 degrees east longitude, 305km west of Coron, Palawan, inside the Philippine Forecast Area (PAR).
It is forecasted that the low pressure is unlikely to strengthen into a tropical depression and may dissipate within the next 12 hours from 2:00 a.m. on October 8.
PAGASA is also monitoring another tropical depression outside the PAR. At 2:00 a.m. on October 8, the center of the tropical depression was at about 23.9 degrees north latitude, 147.4 degrees east longitude, 2,650 km east-northeast of the northernmost tip of Luzon.
Maximum winds near the center of the tropical depression are 55 km/h, gusting to 70 km/h. In the next 24 hours, the tropical depression will move northward at 15 km/h and is unlikely to enter the PAR.
PAGASA's weather bulletin warns of Bicol, Quezon, Ilocos, Cordillera administrative regions, Cagayan Valley and Aurora as well as Metro Manila to experience cloudy skies with scattered thunderstorms due to winter winds. Flash floods or landslides may occur due to moderate to heavy rain.
PAGASA said on October 7 that the southwest monsoon has ended and cold winds will soon blow from the northeast.
According to PAGASA, the southwest monsoon has weakened significantly in the past few days. PAGASA also noted a high pressure system strengthening in East Asia, gradually changing weather patterns in the Philippines.
With these developments, the southwest monsoon season has officially ended. Currently, the Philippines is transitioning to the northeast monsoon season and will be announced in the coming weeks, PAGASA added.
The northeast monsoon signals cooler weather. The northeast monsoon typically lasts from October to February or March. This monsoon brings cool and dry air to the Philippines and can also bring rain to the eastern part of the country.
PAGASA is also monitoring the possibility of La Nina developing in the tropical Pacific. PAGASA previously said there was a 50% chance of La Nina forming in September-November 2024 and is likely to last until January-February 2025.
For the Philippines, La Nina could bring more rain and more typhoons. The Philippines has been affected by 10 typhoons in the 2024 typhoon season so far.
In the weekly typhoon forecast from October 14-20, 2024, PAGASA forecasts that a low pressure may form at the eastern boundary of the Philippine typhoon forecast area (TCAD), with the possibility of the low strengthening into a typhoon.
