The latest storm and low pressure forecast from the Philippine weather agency PAGASA said that from October 30 to November 5, a new low pressure is expected to form in the TCID forecast area of the Philippines.
This low pressure system near the Philippines has the potential to become a low to moderate tropical storm. However, the new low pressure system immediately following Kong-rey has little chance of entering the Philippine PAR forecast area.
Therefore, overall during this forecast period, there is a possibility of new tropical cyclones.
Philippine weather forecasters say the new low pressure system, which is likely to strengthen into a typhoon after Kong-rey (local name Leon), could continue until November 6-12. However, during this period, the system is likely to have a reduced chance of strengthening into a typhoon and will turn towards Japan.
According to the latest storm report at 5:00 a.m. on November 1, Typhoon Kong-rey has weakened into a strong tropical storm and left the Philippine PAR forecast area, heading towards the East China Sea. Typhoon Kong-rey is forecast to continue weakening throughout the remainder of the forecast period due to adverse environmental conditions.
Similarly, the latest update on Typhoon Kong-rey from the US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) said the storm was located 1,280 km southwest of Sasebo, Japan, and had been moving north at 22 km/h over the past 6 hours. Kong-rey is forecast to begin moving northwest. As it moves closer to land, cooler sea surface temperatures and increased wind shear will cause the storm to further weaken into a tropical depression.
Typhoon Kong-rey made landfall in Taiwan on October 31, killing two people and causing strong winds and flooding across much of the island's east coast and northern regions after brushing past the northern Philippines. In Taiwan, at least two people were killed by fallen trees and power poles and 205 were injured.
Weather officials in Japan are urging residents in the Okinawa region to be on guard for high waves as Typhoon Kong-rey heads toward the country, according to NHK. The Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts that Typhoon Kong-rey will weaken into a low pressure system and move east, potentially bringing heavy rain to western Japan from November 1-2 and eastern Japan from November 2-3. Winds are picking up and waves are getting higher on the Sakishima Islands in Okinawa Prefecture, which are near the storm.
An estimated 2-8 tropical storms are expected to enter the Philippine PAR forecast area from July to December. With Typhoon Tra Mi (local name Kristine) and Typhoon Kong-rey being the first two tropical storms to enter the PAR in October, PAGASA forecasts a maximum of 6 more storms to form near the Philippines before the end of the 2024 typhoon season. Philippine typhoon forecasters note that typhoons in the last quarter of 2024 are expected to be stronger and more likely to sweep across the Philippine mainland.
