USA Today's latest hurricane news says the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has entered its fifth month since October 1, and forecasters are reassessing what could be a disastrous and unpredictable season.
In their early forecasts for the 2024 hurricane season, experts predicted an extremely violent season. In fact, Super Hurricane Beryl made landfall in the US mainland in early July with record strength. Most recently, Category 4 Hurricane Helene, which swept across the southeastern US last week, ended hopes of a quiet hurricane season.
The hurricane season is still quite long, with "October traditionally being an active hurricane month, especially in the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico and off the southeastern coast of the United States," said Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the Rosenstiel School of the University of Miami in the US.
"I don't think Helene really impacts the forecast for the rest of the season. But right now the conditions across the board are very favorable for storm formation, low pressure in the eastern Atlantic, and we're seeing storms take advantage of those conditions," said Colorado State University hurricane forecaster Phil Klotzbach.
"We just released our latest 2-week hurricane forecast and are expecting a very busy 2-week hurricane season, with Kirk, Invest 91L (right behind Kirk), and a potential system in the northwest Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico," added hurricane forecaster Phil Klotzbach.
Hurricane forecaster Michael Lowry at WPLG Local 10 in Miami, USA, said that "there will be a return of major hurricanes in the first week of October," he said in his daily update on October 1.
Brian McNoldy also pointed out that names of storms that make landfall and cause catastrophic damage have often been removed from the list of storm names since 1953.
However, it is worth noting that more catastrophic storm names were retired in October and November combined than in June, July and August combined. "So we absolutely have to be vigilant about the threat of tropical storms for the rest of the season," McNoldy said.
In his latest October hurricane forecast, Michael Lowry said Hurricane Kirk formed just after Hurricane Helene headed north and stayed in the Atlantic, but the storm's high waves could reach the U.S. East Coast early to mid-next week.
Immediately following Hurricane Kirk, low pressure Invest 91L off the coast of Africa is expected to strengthen into a hurricane in the next day or two.
“Everywhere in the tropical Atlantic Ocean is still experiencing record or near-record ocean heat content,” said hurricane expert McNoldy. “There is no shortage of fuel for hurricanes or tropical depressions to form anywhere.”
