The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) forecasts that there will be 4 to 7 storms forming within or entering the Philippine Forecast Area (PAR) in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Two or three typhoons are expected in October and one or two in November and December, according to the Philippine weather agency.
Head of the Forecast and Climate Monitoring Department Ana Solis said that tropical cyclones tend to make landfall and pass through the Philippines around this time.
Most typhoons in October hit Luzon while typhoons in November and December mainly hit Bicol, Eastern Visayas and Eastern Mindanao.
Ana Solis added that while there is a possibility of a weak La Nina in the last three months of 2024, severe storms are also possible.
The next storms on PAGASA's list for the 2024 typhoon season include Kristine, Leon, Marce, Nika, Ofel, Pepito and Querubin.
The latest storm, Typhoon Julian (international name Typhoon Krathon), is the 10th tropical storm to hit the Philippines in the 2024 typhoon season and the sixth tropical storm in September.
Early in the morning of October 1, Typhoon Krathon strengthened into a super typhoon, entering the North East Sea, becoming the fifth storm in the East Sea in 2024.
The Philippines rarely had up to six typhoons in September, having only happened twice in the past - in 1978 and 1993.
Climatologists believe that this increased tropical cyclone activity is due to no storms in previous months and warm sea temperatures.
There were only a few storms until August. Several depressions also formed near land and quickly developed into typhoons. This is due to warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the Philippine Sea.
The first nine tropical storms of 2024 have caused 101 deaths, 64 injuries and 34 missing people, according to a report by the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council of the Philippines.
Total infrastructure damage is estimated at 135 million USD, while the agricultural sector suffered about 71 million USD.
In 2023, the Philippines will have only 11 storms - equal to the record for the number of storms least in a year in 1998 and 2010. This is considered an impact of the strong El Nino phenomenon that has affected many places in the world.
