The latest hurricane information on October 22 from the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) said that Hurricane Melissa is about 480km south of Haiti, with maximum sustained winds of 80 km/h.
The first storm to form in the Caribbean Sea this year could sweep across the northern Caribbean with drizzle and strong winds as it strengthens over extremely hot waters this week.
The worst impact of Melissa could be on Hispaniola, with significant risk of significant flooding and dangerous landslides for parts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti throughout the weekend.
Forecasters at the US National Hurricane Center predicted that Shelter would strengthen into a hurricane on October 25, but it was difficult to pinpoint the intensity of the storm afterwards.
Since Shelters formed on October 21, hurricane warnings have been issued for parts of Haiti and tropical storm warnings are in effect for Jamaica.
There is a low chance, but it is not ruled out, that Shelter will directly affect the continental United States. Puerto Rico is likely to see heavy rains as a result of the storm.
The path of Shelter remains uncertain, but there are two main scenarios that forecasters have been monitoring for many days. The most likely scenario at this time shows that the storm could cause disaster to some areas of Hispaniola; the remaining scenario is Hurricane Melissa approaching Central America.
Both scenarios show Shelter sweeping the Caribbean Sea for several days, stirring rough seas and leading to bad weather for islands within the storm's range.
From there, Shelter could turn northward in the second half of the week and could move near Hispaniola over the weekend, strengthening into a Category 1 hurricane by the morning of October 25.
Melissa is the 13th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season but the first to form in the Caribbean Sea. The fact that no storms have formed since Melissa has caused the waters to be so warm that "they are essentially rocket fuel for storms" throughout the season.
If Melissa harnessed that energy, the storm could explode rapidly. This year alone, three of the four Atlantic hurricanes have rapidly intensified: Erin, Gabrielle and Humberto.
Up to 300mm of rain from Hurricane Melissa is forecast for some areas of Hispaniola. It is not yet clear exactly which areas of the Dominican Republic and Haiti will see the heaviest rainfall.
Another scenario is that Shelter moves slowly westward across the Caribbean until it approaches Central America, possibly Nicaragua or Honduras, next week. The storm could then make landfall in Central America or turn north and toward Cuba.
