Since superstorm Beryl made landfall in Texas, USA more than 2 weeks ago, Saharan dust has prevented tropical activity in the Atlantic basin.
However, the current lull in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season may not last much longer as changing weather patterns are forecast across the tropics starting in early August, according to the latest hurricane forecast from the Fox News.
Tropical Storm Alberto, Superstorm Beryl and Tropical Storm Chris - the three early storms of this year's season all developed during the busy period from mid-June to early July.
The latest storm news from the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicts no tropical depressions, tropical storms or hurricanes will form in the Atlantic Ocean for at least the next week.
In fact, the only active tropical storm in the world on July 25 was super typhoon Gaemi in the western Pacific. The storm made landfall in China on July 25.
The FOX Storm Prediction Center believes that the severe weather patterns currently occurring across the tropical Atlantic will disappear by August.
Computer models run by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center show that the periodic climate cycle the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) will create atmospheric conditions more favorable for hurricane development in the Atlantic. Atlantic Ocean in the first half of August.
Computer weather forecasting models show that this area of enhanced rain and rising air associated with the MJO will move across the tropical Atlantic in early August.
Fox News said that the busiest time of the storm season is coming.
Studies show that it is not unusual for the Atlantic basin to have a quiet period at the end of July. However, the busiest times of hurricane season are still August and September. This coincides with the hottest ocean temperatures, lowest wind shear and less Saharan dust.
“On average, tropical activity doesn't accelerate until about the second week of August,” said Fox hurricane expert Bryan Norcross. “The most likely peak date for a named storm in the Atlantic Yang is around September 10. But in the weeks leading up to that date, the possibility of developing a storm will increase very quickly and gradually decrease through the rest of September and October."
In fact, more than 90% of the activity during the Atlantic hurricane season typically occurs from August to the end of the season.
The average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major storms from August to November, but this year's season is expected to be much stronger than normal, NHC data show.
The updated 2024 hurricane season forecast from Colorado State University (CSU) identifies 25 named storms, of which 12 storms reach hurricane level and 6 storms become major storms.
This forecast takes into account the three early season storms that have already formed - Alberto, Beryl and Chris - which means there are 22 more storms remaining until the end of the season.
The average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
