Since Hurricane Beryl made landfall in Texas more than two weeks ago, the Sahara desert has hampered tropical activity in the Atlantic basin.
However, the current lull in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season may not last longer as forecasts for weather patterns change across the tropics begin in early August, according to Fox News' latest hurricane forecast.
Tropical Storm Alberto, Super Typhoon Beryl and Tropical Storm Chris - the three storms that started this year's season all developed during the busy period from mid-June to early July.
The latest hurricane report from the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) says no tropical depressions, tropical storms or hurricanes are expected to form in the Atlantic at least next week.
In fact, the only tropical storm active in the world on July 25 was Super Typhoon Gaemi in the western Pacific. The typhoon made landfall in China on July 25.
The FOX Hurricane Center believes that severe weather patterns that are occurring across the tropical Atlantic will disappear by August.
Computer models operated by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center show that the Madden-Julian Vague (MJO) periodic climate cycle will create more favorable atmospheric conditions for the development of storms in the Atlantic in the first half of August.
A computer weather forecast shows that this area of increased rainfall, combined with high air, associated with the MJO, will move across the tropical Atlantic in early August.
Fox News said that the busiest time of the season is approaching.
Studies show that the Atlantic basin has a quiet period in late July is not unusual. However, the busiest time of the season is still August and September. This coincides with the time when ocean temperatures are hottest, wind shear is lowest and Sahara is less dusty.
On average, tropical developments are not accelerating until around the second week of August, said Fox Bryan Norcross, a hurricane expert. The peak day is likely for a named storm in the Atlantic around September 10. But in the weeks before that date, the likelihood of the storm developing will increase rapidly and gradually decrease until the end of the rest of September and October."
In fact, more than 90% of Atlantic hurricane season activity typically occurs between August and the end of the season.
NHC data shows that the average hurricane season produced 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major storms from August to November, but this year's hurricane season is expected to be much stronger than normal.
The updated 2024 hurricane season forecast from Colorado State University (CSU) states that there are 25 named storms, of which 12 have reached typhoon level and 6 have become major hurricanes.
The forecast includes three previous storms of the season Alberto, Beryl and Chris which means there are 22 more storms until the end of the season.
The average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
