In a new study published in Science Advances, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted an increase in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity.
This study investigates how the frequency and accumulated storm energy (ACE) in the North Atlantic may change in the future. ACE is a measure of total seasonal activity that NOAA scientists use to understand past and future changes in tropical storm activity.
Researchers look at why there have been many intense hurricane seasons in recent years. The results show that the unusually active hurricane season has become more common since the 1990s, and computer models predict that by mid-century, the change could increase by 36%, with the largest increase expected in the central tropical North Atlantic, where tropical storms and hurricanes most frequently form.
Meanwhile, according to analysis from the nonprofit climate research group Climate Central, every storm in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will become stronger than normal.
The winds of the 11 storms have increased from 14-45 km/h due to warmer ocean waters due to climate change.
Every storm in 2024 is stronger than it was 100 years ago, said Daniel Gilford, a climate scientist at Climate Central and lead author of the report. Record-breaking ocean warming and human carbon pollution are exacerbating our communities' typhoon disasters.
The analysis found that 84% of storms between 2019 and 2023 were more intense than when there was no climate change. The storms' winds increased by an average of 29 km/h, causing 30 of them to increase at least one level on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale.
The studys authors say the new analysis proves how much humans have impacted hurricane intensity.
At least 90% of the warming over the past several decades has occurred in the oceans, according to NOAA.
Atlantic water levels, where storms move, have hit or near record-breaking levels throughout the season. Storms absorb this additional energy, making them intensify and even intensify more rapidly and more frequently or have winds increasing by at least 56 km/h in 24 hours or less.
Nine of the season's 11 storms have rapidly intensified. Hurricane Milton gained 15.2 mph in just 24 hours, faster than any other storm in the Gulf of Mexico.
Researchers also found that Hurricanes Debby and Oscar would remain tropical storms rather than becoming hurricanes if there were no pollution warming the planet.
One thing is for sure, climate experts say, as global temperatures continue to rise, the likelihood of stronger, more destructive storms like those that formed in the Atlantic this year is increasing.
