In a new study published in Science Advances, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts an increase in Atlantic tropical storm activity.
This study investigates how the frequency and accumulated energy (ACE) of hurricanes in the North Atlantic may change in the future. ACE is a measure of total seasonal activity that NOAA scientists use to understand past and future changes in tropical cyclone activity.
Researchers looked at why there have been more intense hurricane seasons in recent years. They found that unusually active hurricane seasons have become more common since the 1990s, and computer models predict that by mid-century, the change could increase by 36 percent, with the largest increase expected to occur in the central tropical North Atlantic, where tropical storms and hurricanes most frequently form.
Meanwhile, according to analysis from the nonprofit climate research group Climate Central, every hurricane in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be stronger than normal.
The wind speeds of 11 storms have increased from 14 to 45 km/h due to warmer sea water due to climate change.
“Every hurricane in 2024 is stronger than it was 100 years ago,” said Daniel Gilford, a climate scientist at Climate Central and lead author of the report. “Record-breaking ocean warming and human carbon pollution are exacerbating hurricane disasters in our communities.”
The analysis found that 84% of hurricanes from 2019 to 2023 were more intense than they would have been without climate change. Hurricane winds increased by an average of 18 mph, causing 30 of them to move up at least one notch on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale.
The new analysis demonstrates “how much humans have influenced hurricane intensity,” the study's authors say.
According to NOAA, at least 90% of the warming over the past several decades has occurred in the oceans.
Water levels in the Atlantic Ocean, where hurricanes move, have been at or near record levels throughout the season. Hurricanes absorb this extra energy, causing them to intensify and become even more frequent — or have winds increase by at least 35 mph in 24 hours or less.
Nine of the season's 11 storms have intensified rapidly. Hurricane Milton gained 95 mph in just 24 hours, faster than any other storm in the Gulf of Mexico.
Researchers also found that hurricanes Debby and Oscar would have remained tropical storms instead of becoming hurricanes without pollution warming the planet.
Climate experts say one thing is certain: as global temperatures continue to rise, the likelihood of stronger and more destructive storms like those that formed in the Atlantic this year becomes increasingly likely.
