Forecast of the possibility of super typhoons appearing in the coming time

Song Minh |

The 2024 typhoon season saw a record number of super typhoons in the Northwest Pacific, including the East Sea.

The Northwest Pacific has produced 25 named tropical storms this year, up from 19 in the 2023 hurricane season.

SCMP quoted a meteorologist as saying that climate change may have led to a record number of super typhoons in the Northwest Pacific this year, including three super typhoons affecting Hong Kong (China).

Shun Chi-ming, former director of the Hong Kong Observatory (China), said rising sea temperatures have fueled the formation and intensification of tropical cyclones.

"This is also the first time in November that four tropical storms have appeared at the same time in the Northwest Pacific," said Mr. Shun Chi-ming.

Mr. Shun pointed out that currently, sea surface temperatures in the central East Sea, east of the Philippines and even east of Taiwan (China) are still above 28 degrees Celsius, about 1 to 2 degrees Celsius higher than normal.

He also noted that Typhoon Man-yi (Storm No. 9 in the East Sea) is the 16th tropical storm and the 5th super typhoon to hit the Philippines this year.

The Northwest Pacific has produced 25 named tropical storms this year, up from 19 in the 2023 hurricane season.

Of the 25 storms, eight were super typhoons that made landfall, causing significant damage, compared to five last year. The previous record was seven super typhoons recorded in both 2018 and 2019.

The eight super typhoons this year are Gaemi, Shan Shan, Yagi, Krathon, Kong-rey Yinxing, Toraji and Man-yi.

Super typhoons Yagi, Yinxing, Toraji and Man-yi have affected many places, including the Philippines, Vietnam and Hong Kong (China).

Leung Wing-mo, a former assistant director at the Hong Kong Observatory (China), said global warming was a contributing factor to the formation of tropical cyclones.

"In fact, the sea surface temperature last year was the same, if not higher than this year," he said. "But we haven't seen many of those types of storms since the end of last season. That explains why sea surface temperatures are not the only factor.

Other factors also play a role in the formation of storms, including wind circulation. vertical wind shear can weaken the intensity of the storm.

Leung said that as the sun's position gradually moves southward in winter, the seas receive less energy and sea surface temperatures will not be high enough to help form tropical cyclones.

"So I predict there will be no more super typhoons in the remainder of this year. But it should be noted that there was a super typhoon in December 1974, Super Typhoon Irma, which was in the past.

According to the Hong Kong Observatory (China), the main area of tropical cyclone formation in the Northwest Pacific Ocean is located in the warm waters east of the Philippines.

Under normal conditions, the subtropical high pressure zone in the Northwest Pacific will begin to retreat south in November and December.

But this high pressure band is stronger and located further north than normal this year, avoiding colder waters and stronger winds - factors that will weaken storms after they form.

These various factors have led to the simultaneous appearance of four tropical storms in the Northwest Pacific and the East Sea in November.

Song Minh
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