Forecast of the possibility of super typhoon in the near future

Song Minh |

The 2024 hurricane season will see a record number of super typhoons in the Northwest Pacific region, including the South China Sea.

The Northwest Pacific has produced 25 named tropical storms this year, up from 19 recorded during the 2023 hurricane season.

Climate change may have led to a record number of super typhoons in the northwest Pacific this year, including three that affected Hong Kong, a meteorologist said, according to SCMP.

Shun Chi-ming, former director of the Hong Kong Observatory (China), said rising sea temperatures have promoted the formation and intensification of tropical storms.

"This is also the first time in November that four tropical storms have appeared at the same time in the Northwest Pacific," said Shun Chi-ming.

Mr. Shun pointed out that currently, the sea surface temperature in the central area of ​​the East Sea, east of the Philippines and even east of Taiwan (China) is still above 28 degrees Celsius, about 1 to 2 degrees Celsius higher than normal.

He also noted that Typhoon Man-yi (Typhoon No. 9 in the East Sea) is the 16th tropical storm and the 5th super typhoon to hit the Philippines this year.

Four consecutive typhoons hit the Philippines within 10 days, with the latest typhoon Man-yi making landfall on November 17, 2024. Video: AccuWeather/NOAA/CIRA

The Northwest Pacific has produced 25 named tropical storms this year, up from 19 recorded during the 2023 hurricane season.

Of the 25 storms, eight were super typhoons that made landfall, causing significant damage, compared to five last year. The previous record was seven super typhoons recorded in both 2018 and 2019.

The eight super typhoons this year are Gaemi, Shan Shan, Yagi, Krathon, Kong-rey Yinxing, Toraji and Man-yi.

Super typhoons Yagi, Yinxing, Toraji and Man-yi have affected many places, including the Philippines, Vietnam and Hong Kong (China).

Leung Wing-mo, former assistant director at the Hong Kong Observatory (China), said global warming is a contributing factor to the formation of tropical cyclones.

“In fact, last year’s sea surface temperatures were on par, if not higher, than this year,” he said. “But we didn’t see as many storms late in the season last year. That suggests that sea surface temperatures weren’t the only factor.”

Other factors also play a role in hurricane formation, including wind circulation. Vertical wind shear can weaken a hurricane's intensity.

As the sun's position gradually moves south in winter, the ocean receives less energy and sea surface temperatures will not be high enough to help tropical cyclones form, Leung said.

"So I don't expect any more super storms for the rest of the year. But it should be noted that in the past there was a super storm that happened in December 1974, which was super storm Irma.

According to the Hong Kong Observatory (China), the main formation area of ​​tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific is in the warm waters east of the Philippines.

Under normal conditions, the subtropical high pressure band in the northwest Pacific begins to retreat southward in November and December.

But this ridge of high pressure is stronger and farther north than normal this year, avoiding colder waters and stronger winds — factors that weaken storms after they form.

These various factors led to the simultaneous emergence of four tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific and the South China Sea in November.

Song Minh
TIN LIÊN QUAN

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