On October 12, the world gold price was trading around around 4,016.7 USD/ounce. After increasing by nearly 50% since the beginning of the year, the world gold price has surpassed the 4,000 USD/ounce mark for the first time in history in the middle of last week and increased by 1.5% at the end of the week after US President Donald Trump announced the imposition of an additional 100% tax on Chinese goods and limited US software exports.
This move caused the Wall Street stock market to plummet the most since the peak of the US-China trade war in April.
According to expert Ed Yardeni - Chairman of Yardeni Research, who has repeatedly accurately predicted the gold price trend, the current increase has not yet reached its peak. He said that the new target that his research team predicts is 5,000 USD/ounce by 2026, and if the current trend continues, gold prices are forecast to reach 10,000 USD/ounce in the next 3 years, before 2029.
Mr. Yardeni said that the chain of factors supporting gold is converging strongly: Prolonged inflation, central banks accelerating the process of "de-dollarization" after Russian assets were frozen, Chinese real estate bubbles and especially the trade war that Mr. Trump reignited, which risks disrupting the global geopolitical order.
Another factor supporting gold is the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) return to interest rate cut policy since last month. Although the Fed has not yet entered a strong easing cycle, prioritizing labor market recovery over controlling inflation has investors worried that prices will continue to increase.
The combination of strong GDP growth and persistent inflation risks has pushed gold to a special position - both as a defense tool and an expected profitable asset in the context of uncertainty.
Meanwhile, not only the US, most developed economies are sinking into a mountain of record-breaking public debt. Investors are concerned that governments of other countries will "guarantee for higher inflation" to erase debt, causing currency to lose value and capital flows strongly into gold, silver, and even Bitcoin - a trend that analysts call "investment against currency depreciation".
According to Hamad Hussain of Capital Economics, the "fear of missing out" (FOMO) mentality has spread to the gold market. Although he acknowledged that the precious metal will continue to increase, he warned that the growth rate could slow down as key drivers such as low interest rates and geopolitical instability gradually weaken.
The market is in a state of excessive excitement as gold prices increase even when the USD is stable and the actual bond yield is high, said Mr. Hussain. But in the next few years, we believe that gold prices will continue to increase, at least in terms of nominals (due to inflation, depreciated currencies).
Regarding domestic gold prices, at the end of the trading session of the week, Saigon Jewelry Company SJC listed the price of SJC gold at 140.8-142.8 million VND/tael (buy - sell). Bao Tin Minh Chau: 140.8-142.8 million VND/tael (buy - sell).
The price of 9999 gold rings was listed by Bao Tin Minh Chau at 138.4-141.4 million VND/tael (buy in - sell out). Phu Quy Jewelry Group: 137.3-140.3 million VND/tael (buy in - sell out).
