On the morning of October 12, the Committee for Culture and Society continued its third plenary session to review the draft Population Law.
At the meeting, National Assembly Delegate, Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thien Nhan (HCMC Delegation) said that Vietnam is facing an urgent situation in population work.
If now there is no law to create a basic legal framework to solve the problem of population and labor, the elderly will "go to the foot of the road" of Japan, Korea and some other countries.
Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thien Nhan said that Japan used to have an economic growth of 13%/year, but has gone through 50 years of inadequate birth rates and labor shortages.
It is forecasted that by 2100, their workforce will decrease by 63% compared to 1995. This shows that high economic growth and modern science and technology are not factors that guarantee sustainable development.
If the birth rate is not enough, the consequences will last from 50 - 100 years and if action is not taken immediately, there will be no chance to overcome. Vietnam cannot choose an inadequate birth rate and compensate with immigration.
He said that Vietnam is the only country in the world with a separate resolution on population work in the new situation, and at the same time announced the policy of maintaining replacement fertility. However, after many years of implementation, this goal has not been maintained.
According to Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thien Nhan, Vietnam is facing three major challenges. Firstly, the replacement fertility rate has decreased continuously in the past 3 years. In 2022, it will be 2.01 children/woman, in 2023 it will be 1.96 children, in 2024 it will be 1.91 children.
Second, the retirement age of workers in Vietnam is still low. Currently, the average age is 60 years old and is gradually increasing, but the "golden population" period has passed for a long time.
In many other countries, the golden population is calculated when the number of people working is double the number of people not working. However, the age of working in other countries is usually up to 64, while in Vietnam it is only up to 60. Therefore, if we want to apply workers from 60 to 64 years old, we need to continue to adjust the retirement age according to a reasonable roadmap.
"If there is no roadmap to increase the retirement age, it will waste a huge amount of social resources that the world has increased. We must change" - Professor Nguyen Thien Nhan shared.
Third, through international research, there are 11 direct causes of reduced birth rate. There are 2 reasons why there are fewer births than before.
In particular, in the world, since 1970, modern birth control and contraception methods have been effective and countries have become less poor and have controlled their own births.
The second reason is that the income of the two workers is not enough to raise the two children and they will not have children.
Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thien Nhan analyzed that businesses with the goal of maximum profit only want to pay the minimum wage and do not want to pay enough salary to raise two children. Therefore, in many countries, an average of 40% of households have insufficient income to raise two children.
The delegate of the Ho Chi Minh City delegation analyzed that in the short term, businesses only want to pay low salaries to maximize profits, but when the businesses pay salaries that are not enough to raise two children, they will no longer have to work to produce after 30 years. Therefore, it is necessary to switch from paying the minimum wage to a salary enough to raise 2 children.
Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thien Nhan suggested that there should be a mechanism to determine the responsibility of Party committees and authorities at all levels in implementing upcoming population policies.
