On July 12, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced that the weather pattern La Nina is expected to develop in the coming months, potentially affecting the end of the 2024 hurricane season and the upcoming winter.
After El Nino officially ended in June, the water temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific near the equator remained near average this month. This means that neither El Nino nor the opposing La Nina pattern is continuing. The ENSO state (transition between El Nino and La Nina) is currently in a neutral phase.
The sea surface temperature analysis below shows that the water in the equatorial Pacific feels both cooler and warmer than average.
Forecasts for the coming months suggest that the water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific will gradually cool to meet La Nina conditions.
According to NOAA's latest update, there is a 70% chance that La Nina will develop between August and October - the peak period of the Atlantic hurricane season.
This latest forecast differs from previous forecasts that suggested La Nina would appear from September to November.
There is a 79% chance that La Nina will last until the end of fall and winter (from November 2024 to January 2025).
La Nina is a phenomenon where the ocean surface temperatures in the Pacific cool down. This phenomenon typically occurs every 3 to 5 years, but according to NOAA, the La Nina pattern can last for several years.
La Nina can enhance hurricane activity because it often reduces wind shear in the tropics. Meanwhile, according to NOAA, high sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea will provide additional fuel for storm development.
The Atlantic hurricane season is very active, especially in the western Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.
The La Nina outlook has prompted meteorologists this week to revise the 2024 hurricane season forecast.
Hurricane forecast from Colorado State University released on July 9 indicates that this year's hurricane season is expected to have 25 named storms, 2 more than the previous forecast. These 25 storms include 3 that have already appeared: Alberto, Beryl, and Chris.
Meanwhile, according to the Vietnam News Agency, the Vietnam National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting reports that the La Nina phenomenon will pose a risk of heavy rain, storms, and floods in the last months of the year, especially in the central region.
From now until the end of the year, 10-12 storms and tropical depressions are expected to occur in the northern East Sea, with about 5-7 directly affecting Vietnam; the possibility of strong storms in the East Sea cannot be ruled out.
