The Atlantic hurricane season is approaching and initial signs suggest that forecasters are concerned that this year's hurricane season will resemble the 2024 hurricane season, one of the deadliest and costliest on record.
"super intensified" is the phrase used by weather experts to refer to the intensity of the 2024 hurricane season. Of which, Beryl was recorded as the earliest Category 5 superstorm on record, Hurricane Helene hit the southeastern United States with heavy rain and terrible flooding while Hurricane Milton swept through Florida, causing flooding and tornadoes.
Mr. Alex DaSilva - AccuWeather's leading hurricane forecaster - warned that the 2025 hurricane season is likely to have unpredictable, very intense and unpredictable storms.
One of the biggest factors driving the formation of storms and depressions in 2025 is the abundant warm ocean waters. Ocean temperatures across the Atlantic basin are currently well above the historical average and will continue to heat up throughout the year. This is expected to cause the storm to thrive.
One of the worrying storm trends in recent years is the storm approaching unusually warm water, rapidly intensifying before making landfall. During the 2022 hurricane season, Ian accelerated from a Category 3 hurricane to a Category 5 superstorm as it approached Florida.
The water temperature near the equator of the eastern Pacific is also very important for the 2025 storm forecast because this is an area where La Nina and El Nino phenomena may occur. Although occurring in the Pacific, La Nina and El Nino have a profound impact, which can promote or intercept storms and tropical depressions across the Atlantic.
Neither El Nino nor La Nina will exist in the first half of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, but they are likely to appear in September, October or November. "The trend to La Nina could make the season more active later in the season, while the trend to El Nino could end the season sooner," DaSilva explained.
The hurricane expert pointed out that AccuWeather forecasts the number of named storms, hurricanes, major storms, ACE energy index and direct impact of storms on the US in the 2025 hurricane season to be close to or higher than the historical average.
There are forecasts for 13 to 18 named storms in 2025, including 7 to 10 major hurricanes, 3 to 6 of which directly affect the US. Da Silva added that there is a 20 percent chance of more than 18 named storms this year.
For the 2025 hurricane season, AccuWeather expects the ACE to be between 125 and 175, higher than the 30-year average of 123 and around the level measured in the 2024 hurricane season.
DaSilva said that this year's hurricane season could start very early, with the possibility of the storm forming and being named before the official start of the season on June 1. There is a possibility of few storms at the beginning of the season and a series of storms at the end of the season, similar to 2024. Three of the 18 storms of the 2024 hurricane season will form between September and mid-November.
