Forecasting great risks after the death of Hezbollah leader

Thanh Hà |

The death of Hezbollah leader has raised fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East.

Israel's killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut, Lebanon has significantly increased fears of an all-out war in the Middle East, CNN reported, citing current and former US officials.

According to Jonathan Panikoff - a former senior US intelligence official specializing in the Middle East region, Hezbollah will almost certainly respond and Iran will likely play a role in this response campaign.

The response could be large enough to potentially prompt an all-out war, Mr. Panikoff said.

Hezbollah is considered Iran's strongest and most capable proxy militia in the region.

There are some signs that Tehran is concerned about the extent of damage Israel is doing to Hezbollah, according to a US military official.

A senior US official said the US believes Iran will intervene in the conflict if it feels it is about to "lose" Hezbollah.

The combined impact of Israeli operations against Hezbollah has forced hundreds of its members out of combat, according to the official and another source familiar with the intelligence.

U.S. officials have long assessed that Hezbollah’s senior leadership wanted to avoid all-out war with Israel, even as fighting escalated in recent months. But the Israeli airstrike that killed Nasrallah has turned the tables.

The attack that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is also a clear signal that Israel is willing to risk a wider conflict and is not close to accepting a US-promoted ceasefire proposal, according to Mick Mulroy, a former senior Middle East official at the US Department of National Defense. Hezbollah is also unlikely to be interested in negotiations.

Thanh Hà
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