An expert predicts that 2027 may be hotter than the last 3 years, which were the hottest 3 years in history.
Meteorological agencies and climate scientists say that El Nino is likely to form in the Pacific at the end of this year, a development that could cause global temperatures to rise to record highs in 2027.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Australian Meteorological Agency both said that some climate models are forecasting El Nino may appear. However, both agencies warn that these forecasts are still uncertain.
Weather forecasting experts believe that it is too early to confirm for sure. However, the distribution of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean is sending signals that El Nino may form in 2026.
The Pacific Ocean temperature fluctuation cycle, known as the Southern El Nino Oscillation (ENSO), is closely related to extreme weather events globally.
When warmer than normal seawater is concentrated in the equatorial east Pacific and extends to the coast of the Americas, this phenomenon is called El Nino. El Nino often causes global temperatures to rise and can cause hotter and drier weather conditions in Australia.
The latest weather forecast for the Southern Hemisphere from the Australian Meteorological Agency this week stated: "Some models show the possibility of El Nino developing from June". However, the agency noted that this is still a very long forecast period, so the certainty is not high.
NOAA also noted, "the possibility of El Nino is increasing", but emphasized that forecast models still have many uncertain factors.
Dr. Andrew Watkins - a climate scientist at Monash University and former head of long-term forecasting at the Australian Meteorological Agency - said that there is currently a large amount of warm and hot seawater accumulating in the tropical western Pacific region. Usually, when wind signals are weak, this warm and hot seawater mass will rush eastward, heating up the waters off the coast of South America.
According to Mr. Watkins, there have been "preliminary signals" for El Nino to appear, but it is still too early to conclude that this phenomenon is definitely forming.
Associate Professor Andrea Taschetto, ENSO expert at the University of New South Wales, Australia, said that La Nina is currently weakening, but forecasting the latter stage is very difficult.
She pointed out that the probability of El Nino forming or ENSO maintaining neutral status in the June-August period is currently almost the same, "like throwing a coin".
Dr. Zeke Hausfather - a researcher at the independent scientific organization Berkeley Earth, USA - said that El Nino formed in mid-2023 and lasted until around April 2024 may have caused global temperatures in 2024 to increase by about 0.12 degrees Celsius.
If El Nino develops at the end of this year, it is likely to peak around November to January and will mainly affect global surface temperatures in 2027, instead of 2026. Therefore, I predict 2027 may set a new temperature record if an average to strong El Nino wave actually forms," he said.
