According to World Weather's assessment, the La Nina phenomenon is still maintained in the equatorial east Pacific region and is likely to continue for a while longer.
Although many computer models suggest that La Nina will disintegrate in the next few weeks, thereby paving the way for El Nino to form in late spring or early summer, experts warn that this may be too hasty a forecast, especially from the ENSO CFSv2 model of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
The more plausible scenario is the neutral ENSO state throughout spring and early summer, before El Nino gradually forms in late Q3 or even into Q4 this year.
La Nina is still present, but many signs of weakening have appeared. In recent weeks, warm water under the deep ocean has continuously increased and begun to spread to the eastern Pacific.
When this warm water mass rises to the surface in late January and February, the influence of La Nina will decrease significantly as sea surface temperatures rise.
Whether El Nino comes early or late is not only a scientific story, but also has a direct impact on global weather and agricultural production.
Years of rapid transition from La Nina to El Nino often cause drought in the plains and southwest of the United States at the end of winter, but bring favorable rain in spring and summer.
Conversely, slow migration can make the central area of the United States drier in the spring, accompanied by a trend of higher temperatures than normal.
With El Nino years forming slowly after weak La Nina, the weather usually brings some timely rains to the southeastern United States in the spring, but then returns to drought in the summer.
La Nina this year is assessed as weak, but has contributed to creating a trend of heavy rain in Southeast Asia. As La Nina disintegrates and ENSO moves to a neutral state, studies show that this region is at risk of entering a drier phase, especially in Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines, from the end of the second quarter and more clearly in the third quarter.
In North America, even if La Nina ends, the drought trend in the central and southwestern United States may still last until early spring due to the impact of other weather patterns.
Experts emphasize that NOAA's CFSv2 model has repeatedly mis predicted the ENSO phase transition time, with a delay of nearly 6 months in 2023 and 2024. Therefore, warnings about El Nino appearing early need to be viewed cautiously.
