Reuters reported that on September 15, Chancellor Olaf Scholz arrived in the historic city of Samarkand in Uzbekistan. After meeting with Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that Germany had signed an agreement with Uzbekistan to make it easier for highly skilled Uzbek workers to immigrate to Germany, while also facilitating the return of Uzbeks in Germany.
On September 16-17, Chancellor Olaf Scholz will visit Kazakhstan, the region's largest economic powerhouse, where the German leader will hold a summit with all five former Soviet republics in the region - Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan - on September 17.
Germany entered into a strategic partnership with these countries last year covering the economy, energy, climate and environment. The talks in Kazakhstan are likely to focus on oil and gas supplies to Germany. Germany has several important agreements with Kazakhstan. Kazakh crude began flowing through the Druzhba pipeline last year, helping Berlin's Schwedt refinery continue to operate after EU sanctions on Russia reduced oil and gas supplies from Russia.
"This marks a completely new direction in bilateral cooperation, as Kazakh oil has never flowed through this pipeline before," Reuters quoted a Kazakh government official as saying. In addition to oil, Kazakhstan also has more than 2 trillion cubic meters of natural gas reserves.
German teams have negotiated deals on chemicals, skilled labor, renewable energy, logistics, education, many of which are expected to be signed during Chancellor Scholz's visit.
In 2023, Kazakhstan exported 8.5 million tonnes of oil to Germany, accounting for 11.7% of Germany's total oil imports and up from around 6.5 million tonnes before the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
The increase makes Kazakhstan Germany's third-largest supplier after Norway and the United States, according to data from the German Federal Statistical Office. Meanwhile, German investments in Kazakhstan increased by 64% last year compared to 2022. According to data from the East German Business Association, trade between Kazakhstan and Germany nearly doubled in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
“Central Asia has not been a top priority for Germany due to its political system and regime. But the conflict has fundamentally changed this dynamic,” said Stefan Meister, a Central Asia expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations.
Behind all the new plans, however, old historical and geographical realities remain. Kazakhstan could provide an alternative to Russian oil and gas for Germany. But it is also weighed down by an outdated Soviet-era power grid and complicated bureaucracy.
In addition, the five Central Asian countries, which are geographically and historically close to Russia, have so far refused to openly take sides in the military campaign in Ukraine. Russia still has considerable influence in Central Asia, especially in the security, economic and energy sectors. Therefore, the relationship with Russia will, in some way, persist. Germany’s search for more strategic and geopolitical interests in the Central Asian region – where Russia still maintains strong influence – is seen as a smart move.
