New forecasts from the European Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (ECMWF) show that the sea surface temperature in an important area in the central equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean may be about 3 degrees Celsius higher than the average in December this year, even in some scenarios it may exceed 4 degrees Celsius.
If this forecast becomes a reality, El Nino this year will be significantly stronger than the 2 El Nino spells that are currently holding record records in the periods 1997-1998 and 2015-2016.
These two historic El Nino events once caused the Nino 3.4 index - a measure of the unusual level of sea surface temperature in the central Pacific region - to increase by about 2.3 degrees Celsius compared to the average.
Meteorologist Ben Noll - a global weather writer for the Washington Post - commented on social network X that: "ALMOST every scenario now exceeds +3 degrees Celsius, while a group of extreme scenarios exceeds +4 degrees Celsius. This forecast now describes the strongest El Nino in history.
El Nino appears cycleically about once every 2-7 years as part of the natural climate oscillation ENSO (El Nino - Southern Oscillation) in the Pacific.
The most recent El Nino occurred from June 2023 to April 2024, adding significant heat to the already rapidly warming planet. This event contributed to making 2024 the hottest year, and also the first year the global average temperature exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial period.
Previous El Nino waves have had a profound impact on global agriculture. Many studies link this phenomenon to famines in Europe, conflicts in tropical areas, as well as droughts, floods and forest fires around the world.
El Nino this year is forecast to appear in the context of increasing global food insecurity due to the impact of the war in Iran.
In an update released on June 2, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said that the probability of El Nino forming before September is 80% and increasing to 90% before November, and warned the world to prepare for an event that could be very strong.
In a video message, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres emphasized: "Science has shown clearly: El Nino is getting very close in the coming months with a 90% probability. The world needs to see this as an urgent climate warning.
He also noted that although El Nino is a natural phenomenon and will still occur even without climate change, this phenomenon will exacerbate the current global warming situation.
El Nino conditions will add fuel to the fire of a warming world. The impact will be stronger, more widespread and across borders at an alarming rate of devastation," the United Nations Secretary-General said.
