From the cereal-producing plains in northwestern India to the wheat belt in eastern Australia, from rice fields in Thailand to large palm oil plantations in Indonesia, hot weather and lower than normal rainfall are affecting crops, forcing many farmers to cut crop area.
The drought caused by El Nino is creating more pressure on farmers who are already facing a shortage of fertilizers and diesel fuel due to the impact of the Iran conflict.
One of the strongest recorded El Nino waves is forecast to form in the second half of 2026, leading to hot and dry weather in Asia, while causing heavy rain in the Americas. Global climate change is said to be making the situation more serious.
Mr. Chris Hyde - meteorologist at SkyFi data and satellite imaging company (USA) - said that the impact of El Nino on the global scale usually starts from Southeast Asia, India and Australia before spreading to North America and South America. Initial drought signs have appeared in many areas in Asia, according to high-resolution satellite images of the company.
In Southeast Asia, drought is affecting rice and palm oil yields in some areas. Thailand and the Philippines usually plant the main rice crop in July-July, while Vietnam and Indonesia are sowing for the second crop of the year.
According to the Indonesian meteorological agency, Java Island - the most populous place in the country - along with some areas in northern Sumatra, southern Kalimantan and Sulawesi have had no rain for more than 10 days. Rainfall in June is forecast to be moderate to low.
Rice prices are gradually increasing even though India, the country accounting for about 40% of global rice exports, still possesses a very large reserve after many consecutive years of bumper crops.
A trader in Singapore of an international trading company commented: "There are clear signs of a crisis as rice prices are rising sharply even though serious shortages have not occurred". According to this trader, Thai rice prices have increased by about 15% in just one month.
However, the research department of Kiatnakin Phatra Bank, Thailand believes that the impact of drought may be mitigated thanks to the current high water levels in reservoirs. However, the bank said that what is more worrying is the supply of fertilizers. Kiatnakin Phatra Bank estimates that if fertilizer shortages occur, rice production may decrease by 15-20% in the worst case scenario.
In Australia, recent rains on arid agricultural land have helped farmers start planting wheat later than usual. However, they remain cautious about the risk of El Nino in the coming months that could reduce yields.
The Australian Meteorological Agency forecasts that many farming areas in New South Wales and Queensland will have lower than normal rainfall from 20-40mm in the next 3 months.
Meanwhile, El Nino is forecast to have a neutral impact on China and the Black Sea region, but will bring more rainfall to the Americas.
