The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) under the United Nations said on June 2nd that El Nino is 80% likely to form before September and 90% likely to last until November.
Most forecast models show that the El Nino phenomenon will be at least moderate in intensity, and may even be strong. Previously, some scientists had warned that this could be the strongest El Nino wave in this century.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres noted that the world should consider this an urgent climate warning. “El Nino conditions will continue to add fuel to the fire of a warming world. The impact will be stronger, spread further and cross borders at an alarming rate of devastation,” he said.
The WMO said that unusually high temperatures are forecast to appear in almost every region of the world in the next 3 months. The organization also warned of the risk of increased extreme rain and severe drought.
Although each El Nino has its own characteristics, scientists often note that this phenomenon increases rainfall in some areas of South America, southern America, the Horn of Africa and Central Asia. Meanwhile, drought conditions often appear in Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean region, Australia, Indonesia and some areas in South Asia.
Seawater warming due to El Nino may also add energy to storms in the central and eastern Pacific regions, but reduce the possibility of storm formation in the Atlantic.
The new El Nino warning was issued in the context that Western Europe had just experienced an unusually hot May, with many May temperature records broken in the UK and Ireland.
Last week, the WMO and the British Met Office warned that it is almost certain that the world will record a new record hot year before this decade ends. The return of El Nino may cause it to happen as early as 2027.
El Nino usually appears every few years and lasts for about 9 to 12 months.
The United Nations Meteorological Agency noted that sea surface temperatures in the Pacific reference areas have approached the El Nino threshold from late April to mid-May. The reason is the unusually hot water layer under the sea surface. The organization also noted that current atmospheric conditions are consistent with the formation of El Nino.
This organization does not use the term "super El Nino" that some scientists have mentioned recently to describe the possibility of a particularly strong El Nino eruption, because this concept is not in the official classification system.
