Weather forecasters say a strong El Nino pattern could form by the end of this year, with the potential to become one of the strongest spells in 3 decades. Winds in the Pacific are changing, the ocean releases accumulated heat, and a chain of impacts on rain, drought, and forest fires may be about to occur.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said that it is about 60% likely that El Niño will form in the period from May to July. This is one of the main reasons why scientists believe that next year may surpass 2024 to become the hottest year since modern data storage began in the mid-19th century.
We are in a different background climate than before," said Clara Deser, senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, USA.
That means that previous El Nino waves may no longer be a reliable basis for predicting the developments of the upcoming waves.
For Asia, El Nino often leads to hotter and drier weather for South Asia and Southeast Asia, but for China, the post-El Nino impact is more noteworthy.
After a very strong El Nino spell in 1997-1998, China recorded the worst flood in nearly 50 years. The Yangtze River and its tributaries recorded 2 months of heavy rain, killing about 3,000 people.
The reason is the rapid transition in 1998 from strong El Nino to strong La Nina, according to Wenju Cai - a climate scientist at the Chinese Oceanic University. This sudden phase transition created a high pressure system in the western Pacific, leading warm and humid air from the tropics to China.
Scientists predict that both strong El Nino and strong La Nina will appear more frequently as humans continue to contribute to global warming. This means that strong fluctuations between the two phenomena may also occur more frequently.
To date, a strong La Nina shifting rapidly to a strong El Nino is still relatively rare, "because it takes many years to warm up the Pacific," said Wenju Cai. However, global warming may be making this phenomenon more common, according to a recent study by him and his colleagues.
Also related to El Nino, Thailand is facing the risk of water shortages in the context of declining "input water resources", i.e., reserves used in the dry season, due to climate change and El Nino conditions.
Data from water management agencies shows that many areas in Thailand are facing risks, in which the Thai Environment Institute (TEI) believes that it is necessary to accelerate systemic adaptation measures to cope with the situation that may become more serious.
The National Water Resources Office estimates that in the 2025-2026 dry season, Thailand is at risk of domestic water shortages in 41 provinces, agricultural water shortages in 12 provinces, and water quality risks in 22 major river basins. Areas to be monitored include eastern Bangkok, Nonthaburi and Samut Prakan, where saltwater intrusion can affect tap water production.
