The El Nino phenomenon that is forming is forecast to fully develop this summer and dominate both the Atlantic and Pacific regions, reducing the possibility of tropical storm formation in the Atlantic but making storms in the eastern Pacific stronger.
El Nino occurs when the water temperature in the equatorial Pacific region is warmer than the average, while La Nina is when the water is colder than normal, and the neutral ENSO state is when the temperature is close to the average.
During El Nino, higher than normal water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific create strong winds, hindering the formation of tropical storms in the Atlantic.
The FOX Center for Forecasting said: "Warmer waters and stronger airflows in the Pacific create unfavorable upper-level winds blowing through the Caribbean and the major storm-forming region (MDR). Strong west winds can tilt or disrupt the structure of a storm being formed, making it unable to strengthen and creating a more stable atmospheric environment.
Upper-level winds often "tear apart" developing tropical systems, making them unable to organize into strong storms.
Experts believe that the 2026 El Nino wave may be stronger than the average level. Weather forecast models from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the International Institute for Climate and Social Research (IRI) at Columbia University, USA see that super El Nino is likely to form this summer, increasing the unfavorable winds mentioned above.
On average each year, the Atlantic region has about 14 named storms and 7 storms reaching typhoon level. In El Nino years, this number usually decreases to about 10 storms and 5 typhoons.
However, the exact timing of El Nino formation will play an important role in how much the Atlantic is protected in this year's hurricane season.
If El Nino only appears late in late August or later, there will be a more favorable space for storms to form in the Gulf of Mexico, an area where most tropical storms usually develop in the first half of the season.
Fox Forecast Center also noted that storms in June are usually less likely to form in El Nino years. This means that in the next 2 months, if El Nino appears, the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will have fewer storms.
Considering recent El Nino years, 2023 had 3 storms in June, while 2015 had only 1 storm and 2009 had no storms.
According to climate laws, the first hurricane in the Atlantic usually does not appear until August 11th and the hurricane season peaks on September 10th.
However, both the Fox Center for Forecasting and storm expert Bryan Norcross of the center warned that just one storm could cause serious impacts.
The storm season in the eastern Pacific region will begin from May 15, while the Atlantic hurricane season starts from June 1. Both storm seasons last until November 30.
