Warm seawater is the fuel needed for storm formation. Therefore, the upcoming El Nino period is seen as a favorable condition for the storm season in the eastern Pacific to be more active, US storm forecasters said.
One of the effects of El Nino is reduced wind shear, i.e., changes in wind direction and speed in higher atmospheres. This helps tropical systems to form in the area to be less blown off or dissipate.
The warmer environment in the Pacific Ocean creates conditions for tropical storms and typhoons to develop, maintaining a complete vertical structure.
Meanwhile, the impact of El Nino in the Atlantic basin is in the opposite direction, with relatively cooler water temperatures and stronger wind shear. This is not an ideal environment for storm formation.
However, this does not mean that the Atlantic will not have storms, but statistically, the number of storms may be lower than the average.
The world recorded El Nino most recently in 2023, and since then the climate has shifted to La Nina - a phenomenon that makes the Atlantic hurricane season more active than average in recent years.
In 2023, the storm season in the eastern Pacific recorded 20 storms and tropical depressions, of which 17 storms were named. Notably, in that storm season, Hurricane Hilary moved through the Baja California peninsula before making landfall in the form of a tropical storm. After that, this system continued to affect the southwestern United States, affecting the states of California, Arizona and Nevada. Hurricane Hilary killed 3 people, causing damage of more than 900 million USD in the US and Mexico.
Last year's storm season in the eastern Pacific had 18 storms and tropical depressions formed in the context of La Nina's impact. The most prominent storm of the 2025 storm season is Super Typhoon Kiko, which once strongly moved towards the Hawaiian archipelago before weakening in colder waters and dissipating in the north of the archipelago.
In the 2026 hurricane season, the first storm name is Amanda, followed by Boris, Cristina and Douglas.
The US National Hurricane Center will begin monitoring the risk of tropical system formation in the East Pacific until the end of the hurricane season, with forecast bulletins updated many times a day.
