Europe's latest long-term forecast shows that the super El Nino phenomenon may appear for sure, with the potential to weaken storm activity in the Atlantic and cause more rain in the autumn and winter in the southern United States.
The European Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (ECMWF) has released a long-term May forecast model, which increases the possibility of the strongest El Nino wave ever appearing around November.
In March, new forecast data only lasted until September, and at that time the possibility of reaching the El Nino threshold was only about 55%.
The FOX Center for Forecasting said that the fact that a strong El Nino wave of this magnitude was predicted very early shows that this may be a notable weather phenomenon in the coming years.
Usually, such a strong El Nino will reduce storm activity in the Atlantic but increase storm activity in the eastern Pacific.
However, ECMWF has not yet forecast a sharp decrease in the number of storms in this year's storm season. This shows that the strongest impacts of El Nino may only appear in the later stages of the storm season.
According to the latest forecast, this year's storm season may have 13 named storms and 6 typhoons. According to the FOX Center for Forecasting, on average each season usually has about 14 named storms and 7 typhoons.
In the area near the US mainland, ECMWF forecasts near-average storm activity, while the area north of the Gulf of Mexico has higher than normal rainfall.
Forecasts also show that seawater temperatures in the Atlantic will be higher than the average for most of the 2026 hurricane season.
However, the forecast model also shows that tropical activity in most of the storm's "main development zone" in the Atlantic will be lower than average. The FOX Center for Forecasting said that this means El Nino may significantly weaken tropical activity in the Atlantic, but not completely eliminate the entire storm season.
The storm season in the eastern Pacific begins on May 15, while the Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1.
