The possibility of super El Nino - one of the strongest El Nino waves ever recorded - is increasing in the second half of this year. This risk is reminiscent of 1877 - the time super El Nino caused a global disaster.
The strongest El Nino ever recorded in the period 1877-1878 created conditions leading to global famine, killing more than 50 million people in India, China, Brazil and many other places. This number was equivalent to about 3-4% of the world's population at that time.
“That could be the worst environmental disaster ever to hit humanity” - researchers commented on the event of 1877.
Disasters did not occur immediately but lasted for many years. Drought began to spread in tropical and subtropical regions from 1875. In the following years, the combination of strong climate factors in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans along with record El Nino caused drought to become more severe and prolonged.
Deepti Singh - Associate Professor at Washington State University and researcher of this super El Nino - said that famine is not an inevitable consequence of drought. According to her, the deliberate policies of the colonial government in the 1870s disrupted the local systems that the community relied on to withstand climate change.
Prolonged droughts occurring simultaneously, similar to the 1870s, are entirely possible to be repeated. The current difference is that the atmosphere and ocean have heated significantly compared to the 1870s, meaning the accompanying extreme phenomena may be even harsher," she noted.
However, there are also many other important differences. At that time, people had no way to know in advance that such a strong El Nino was coming, nor did they clearly understand what it meant. Modern understanding of this phenomenon only improved significantly after another super El Nino occurred in the period 1982-1983.
Thanks to major advances in climate monitoring and forecasting, the world today is much better prepared to respond to the consequences of El Nino.
The serious losses once associated with super El Nino 1877-1878 are unlikely to be repeated in today's era but can still have a major impact on food security, especially in vulnerable areas to prolonged adverse weather, thereby causing global consequences.
The increasing risk of drought related to this super El Nino will threaten food security, water resources and the economy in many regions, thereby potentially spreading globally through closely linked socio-economic systems," Ms. Singh said.
