Seawater temperatures in the central Pacific region have begun to rise to the threshold of 0.5 degrees Celsius, a level considered standard for identifying El Nino, which is forecast to fully develop this summer.
El Nino is one of the 3 states of the Southern Oscillation Climate Cycle - El Nino (ENSO). This phenomenon describes natural temperature changes in the central Pacific region, thereby changing atmospheric circulation and potentially greatly affecting global weather.
El Nino refers to the situation where seawater in the equatorial Pacific region is warmer than average, while La Nina is a condition colder than average. The ENSO neutral state occurs when the temperature is close to the average.
During the El Nino period, higher than normal water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific regions create strong winds, hindering storm development in the Atlantic, while promoting storm activity in the eastern Pacific.
Computer forecast models show that this summer's El Nino is not only likely to become super El Nino - defined when the water temperature in the central Pacific reaches at least 2 degrees Celsius higher than normal - but could also be one of the strongest El Nino waves ever recorded.
Although the sea surface temperature in the central Pacific is starting to reach 0.5 degrees Celsius, these are just instant observations.
The most powerful changes are taking place at a depth of 100-200m below sea level.
According to the FOX Forecasting Center, a giant warm hot water mass formed in the western Pacific is gradually moving eastward.
Driven by winds from the west and some other physical factors, this warm water is expected to enter the El Nino region in the summer, continuing to increase temperatures.
There is currently a very high probability that El Nino conditions will last until the end of 2026.
As El Nino intensifies, this phenomenon will begin to distort the Pacific current - an atmosphere that acts as a "conveyor belt" transporting storms and is responsible for most of the rainfall in the US.
Long-term weather forecast models show that El Nino will strengthen this jet and push it southward, leading to a higher-than-average humid weather pattern in California and the southern United States in the second half of the year as well as throughout the winter.
Although a very strong El Nino is forecast to almost paralyze storm formation in the Atlantic Ocean this year, the weather pattern of many thunderstorms in the southern United States may still create conditions for tropical activity to appear in the northern Gulf of Mexico and along the southeastern coast of the United States.
In fact, Europe's long-term forecasting model predicts storm activity near the US will be near normal.
The Atlantic hurricane season lasts from June 1 to November 30 every year. Meanwhile, El Nino this time is forecast to make the storm season in the eastern Pacific significantly stronger. The storm season in this region starts from May 15 in the context that sea surface temperatures are already 2-3 degrees Celsius higher than the average.
