Gas prices in the European Union (EU) may increase by at least 100% compared to previous forecasts, as the bloc continues to pursue a policy of cutting dependence on Russian energy.
The warning was issued by Mr. Kirill Dmitriev - Managing Director of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), special investment envoy of the Russian President - amid strong fluctuations in the global energy market due to the escalating Middle East conflict.
According to Mr. Dmitriev, Europe will face an inevitable reality of returning to seeking supplies from Russia as gas prices escalate uncontrollably.
We forecast that gas prices in the EU will be at least 100% higher than previously estimated, and Europe will eventually have to seek Russian gas aid," Mr. Dmitriev wrote on social network X.
The statement was made in the context of the war between the US - Israel and Iran seriously disrupting global energy flows, especially in the Strait of Hormuz - a vital transportation route for oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG). The volume of ships passing through this area is said to have decreased by 80%, causing oil and gas prices to simultaneously increase sharply.
Previously, according to HSBC's forecast quoted by Bloomberg, gas prices in Europe in 2026 may be 40% higher than previously estimated and remain high in the following year. However, assessments from Russia show that the actual increase may be much more serious.
The EU is under double pressure: On the one hand, the consequences of cutting off Russian energy supplies after the Ukraine conflict, and on the other hand, the challenges from the transition to green energy. These factors make the bloc's energy system more fragile in the face of external shocks.
Notably, Europe is particularly vulnerable to LNG supply disruptions. After a long cold winter, the region's gas reserves are currently about 15% lower than the 5-year average. This increases the risk of shortages as demand increases again.
Meanwhile, the US gas market shows relative stability. Thanks to abundant reserves and LNG export facilities operating near maximum capacity, the US is somewhat "immune" to global supply shocks, contrary to the situation in Europe.
The latest developments are sparking debate within the EU about whether to reconsider energy sanctions against Russia. Previously, President Vladimir Putin warned that Russia could proactively completely stop gas supplies to Europe before Brussels' plan to end Russian energy imports by 2027 is implemented.
