On March 16, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that the US is allowing Iranian oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, despite Tehran being accused of attacking commercial ships in the area.
Speaking to CNBC, Mr. Bessent admitted: "Iranian ships are still leaving the Gulf, and we let that happen to ensure supply for the world.
The Strait of Hormuz - the route that transported about 20% of the world's oil supply before the conflict - is currently witnessing a sharp drop in ship traffic, even in days when Hormuz is without a single ship, as attacks increase risks.
However, Iran still maintains exports of about 1.5 million barrels/day through this narrow sea route, even when the US Navy is densely present. According to Mr. Bessent, the US believes that ship traffic will soon increase again before the US Navy and its allies deploy official escorts.
It is noteworthy that not only Iran, but major customers such as India and China are also quietly maintaining energy flows. A liquefied gas tanker docked at the Indian port on March 16, and another ship is expected to arrive in the next few days.
New Delhi is currently awaiting confirmation from Tehran so that 22 other ships - carrying crude oil, LPG and LNG - can continue their journey through Hormuz.
Washington seems to be accepting a "natural opening" created by Iran itself. "Currently we are okay with that. We want the world to be fully supplied" - Mr. Bessent said.
At the same time, President Donald Trump is still putting pressure on countries dependent on Hormuz to participate in protecting commercial ships.
Meanwhile, the global energy market is reacting strongly. Brent oil prices have climbed to about 102 USD/barrel, while US oil is around 95 USD/barrel - up nearly 40% in just 2 weeks since the US and Israel attacked Iran.
According to the International Energy Agency, this is the largest supply disruption in history, with global production expected to decrease by up to 8 million barrels/day this month.
However, Mr. Bessent believes that oil prices will fall deeply, below 80 USD/barrel when the war ends. He also denied rumors that the US is directly interfering in the oil contract market, saying that Washington has not taken any such action and the legal basis for doing so is also unclear.
