Since the beginning of 2025, gold has increased in price by nearly 35%, becoming the number one safe-haven asset in the context of persistent inflation, geopolitical instability and the risk of global economic recession.
The world gold price was listed at 23:00 on September 3 at 3,563.3 USD/ounce, a sharp increase of 44.7 USD compared to a day before. Meanwhile, December gold futures on the US stock exchange climbed straight to $3,600/ounce.
According to Deutsche Bank, this shocking increase is associated with expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates at the meeting on September 16-17. The CME FedWatch tool shows a nearly 90% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates this month, and the market is forecasting at least three more cuts before the end of 2025.
In addition to prolonged inflation, one reason for the sharp increase in gold prices is political pressure from US President Donald Trump. He has repeatedly criticized Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and even fired Fed officials, raising concerns about the independence of the US central bank.
Krishan Gopaul, a senior expert at the World Gold Council, commented: "When there are signs of doubt about the independence of the Fed and the strength of the USD, gold becomes a safer haven for investors."
However, trade tensions caused by President Donald Trump's new tariffs have also added to market uncertainty, triggering the flow of money into gold.
Gold ETFs are attracting record capital, while central banks in many countries have also increased their reserves sharply. Notably, for the first time since 1996, the amount of gold held by central banks has exceeded US government bonds.
Nick Lawson, CEO of Ocean Wall Bank ( London), called this a "big head-to-head convergence" when gold is simultaneously bought strongly by pension funds, insurance companies, national investment funds and central banks.
Not only the West, China and India have also emerged as two giant gold buyers, contributing to maintaining the uptrend.
In the latest report, UBS predicts that gold prices could completely approach $3,700/ounce by mid-2026, or even $4,000/ounce if the global economic and geopolitical situation becomes more tense.
Meanwhile, Supriya Menon, a multi-asset strategist at Wellington Management, affirmed: The factors supporting gold are now structural, from geopolitical instability, doubts about the Fed, to the wave of central bank gold purchases. Historical peaks are not a barrier to further growth".
In the context of the world sinking into instability, from inflation, trade war, to doubts about US monetary policy, investors believe that the journey to setting a record for gold is just begun.
Regarding domestic gold prices, as of 6:00 a.m. on September 4, the price of SJC gold bars was listed by DOJI Group, Bao Tin Minh Chau and Phu Quy silver and stone gold group at 131.9-133.4 million VND/tael (buy in - sell out).
The price of 9999 gold rings is listed around 125.8-129 million VND/tael (buy in - sell out).
