Old Solutions for New Wars

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In the context of the ongoing war, bombs still falling, bullets still exploding and still causing destruction and death in the Middle East, the ceasefire agreement just reached between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon is a bright spot and an encouraging positive development.

The United States played a decisive role in the diplomatic mediation of the agreement, while France was involved in ensuring that the ceasefire agreement was fully and strictly implemented by all parties involved.

This ceasefire agreement only deals with the war between Hezbollah and Israel. Accordingly, within 60 days, Israel will withdraw all troops from southern Lebanon and Hezbollah will withdraw within 40km of Lebanon's border with Israel. The Lebanese army and UN peacekeeping forces will control security in this buffer zone. The agreement is not limited in time.

Officially, the US proposed this agreement, but in reality, the agreement is a copy of the idea and model of the solution that helped end the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, formalized in Resolution 1701 of the United Nations Security Council.

Looking back from today’s perspective, it is undeniable that both Hezbollah and Israel have implemented but not strictly implemented the 2006 ceasefire agreement. Hezbollah has continuously built up its forces and increased its armaments in the southern Lebanese territory adjacent to Israel. Israel has continuously conducted incursions into Lebanese airspace for reconnaissance and intelligence gathering.

As a result, more than 17 years later, a new war broke out between Israel and Hezbollah. Therefore, even though a new ceasefire agreement has been signed and taken effect, the deep hatred and rivalry between Israel and Hezbollah has not been resolved, has not been resolved completely and permanently at its roots. There is no guarantee that a new war between Israel and Hezbollah will break out again at some point.

The times and the political situation as well as the war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip and between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon forced Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hezbollah to accept the above-mentioned ceasefire agreement. Hezbollah was severely damaged by Israel in terms of manpower and military potential, so it needs time to recover.

Netanyahu has inflicted heavy damage on Hamas and Hezbollah, but has not yet achieved his stated goal of eliminating both forces, completely and definitively overcoming the security threat and challenge from Hamas and Hezbollah. A ceasefire with Hezbollah would allow Israel to focus all its military capabilities on fighting Hamas and rescuing the hostages. The US and Israel's allies have urged Netanyahu to accept a ceasefire with Hamas and Hezbollah so strongly that Netanyahu has been forced to make certain concessions to maintain the political, military and financial support of these strategic allies, especially the US.

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