The global energy market is facing a potential for significant changes as the US has partially eased sanctions against Russian oil. This move could help the oil tanker fleet, which is called Russia's "dark fleet", operate more openly and contribute to supplementing supplies for the world market.
Some sources say the US has granted a 30-day exemption allowing India to buy Russian oil in some cases in the context of energy supplies from the Middle East being disrupted by Iranian war. Increasing supplies from Russia is seen as one of the measures to help reduce global oil price pressure.
Countries like India and China have long been major customers of Russian crude oil, especially after Europe sharply reduced imports from Moscow.
Since 2022, the West has imposed a series of sanctions to limit Russia's energy revenue. These orders include bans on importing oil and petroleum products into the US, restrictions on investment in the Russian oil and gas industry, and cuts in technology cooperation in the energy sector.
The G7 group also applied a price ceiling mechanism for Russian oil. Accordingly, companies in the G7 countries are only allowed to provide transportation, insurance and financial services for Russian oil blocks if the selling price is lower than the regulated ceiling. Initially, the ceiling was 60 USD/barrel, then gradually reduced to about 44 USD/barrel from the beginning of 2026.
These restrictions have forced Russia to build its own transportation network, often called the "dark fleet". This is a collection of oil tankers operating outside the Western transportation and insurance service system, helping Russia continue to export oil to Asian markets.
According to experts' estimates, about 1,800 oil tankers out of nearly 8,800 ships operating globally are currently related to US sanctions, due to being directly included in the restricted list or being owned by sanctioned companies. This has made international oil transportation activities more complicated in recent years.
If the US decides to adjust its policy, easing measures may include granting separate licenses for some financial transactions related to energy, easing regulations on insurance and oil transportation, or adjusting the price ceiling mechanism.
For Russia, the financial impact may be very significant. According to energy experts, every 1 USD increase in oil selling price will bring about 1.4 billion USD in additional revenue for the Russian oil and gas industry each year, of which about 2/3 flows into the state budget through taxes.
In the context that oil prices have once reached nearly 120 USD/barrel and may increase further if the Middle East crisis lasts, the future of the Russian "dark fleet" may become an important factor in the global energy balance.
