Russia unexpectedly benefits from sharp oil price increase

Ngọc Vân |

In just the first week of the Iran war, Russia emerged as an "early winner", when it could take advantage of the economic and geopolitical consequences of the conflict.

Russia is one of the few countries that still maintains friendly relations with Iran. The Russian Foreign Ministry has condemned the attacks by the US and Israel on Iran, calling them "intentional and unprovoked acts of aggression against a sovereign nation".

President Vladimir Putin also criticized the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, calling it "a brutal assassination".

In the short term, Russia may gain significant benefits from the Iran war, according to Time.

One of the most important factors is the soaring energy prices. Before the conflict broke out, Russia's oil and gas industry was under great pressure from international sanctions and low oil prices. Revenue from Russia's oil and gas has decreased sharply, from about 45% of the federal budget in 2021 to about 20% in 2025.

However, the Iran war has disrupted global oil supplies, causing oil prices to rise sharply. This helps Russia - one of the world's largest oil and gas exporters - quickly benefit.

If Moscow previously had to sell oil at a price reduction of 10-13 USD per barrel due to sanctions, now the selling price has increased, possibly even reaching a level a few USD higher than the market price.

The tense situation in the Middle East also caused the attention of the international community to temporarily leave the Ukrainian conflict. According to experts, this is a factor that Moscow can take advantage of when the conflict with Kiev shows no signs of ending soon.

Another impact of the Iran war is the risk of weakening Ukraine's defense capabilities. Kiev already lacks a US-made Patriot air defense system - a costly weapon used to intercept missiles and drones.

Now Washington has to use these missiles to protect bases and allies in the Middle East from Iranian attacks, making the supply to Ukraine even more limited.

European officials warn that this situation could become serious, as it is difficult for the US to provide enough anti-aircraft missiles for both the Middle East and Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Russia continues to intensify missile and drone attacks on Ukraine. Data shows that the number of missiles Russia launched in recent attacks has increased significantly compared to previous months.

Nga tấn công các cơ sở năng lượng phục vụ quân đội Ukraina. Ảnh: TASS
Russia attacks energy facilities serving the Ukrainian army. Photo: TASS

In addition to economic and military factors, the Iran war also creates other geopolitical advantages for Russia. In the context of continued tensions in the Middle East, many analysts believe that Russia may continue to take advantage of the situation to consolidate its economic and geopolitical influence, at least in the short term.

Ngọc Vân
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