Since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, there have been 18 times of internal political and social instability in Iran. But in this 19th time, there are 4 basic differences compared to previous times and these differences affect the country's future prospects for security, stability and development.
First, the wave of protests and protests this time spread almost across the country and with unprecedented level of excitement, the government also responded very strongly.
Second, this wave started only from the dissatisfaction of a group of businessmen but quickly developed and distorted into a political struggle movement spreading throughout the country.
Third, in the previous 18 times, incumbent US presidents only showed a cautious reaction. Current US President Donald Trump is different, standing completely on the side of protesters against the government and threatening to launch a military attack on Iran if the government resolutely suppresses protesters.
Fourthly, for the first time in the context of a wave of protests and protests in the country, support for Shah Pahlavi's exiled son - who was overthrown in the 1979 Islamic Revolution - has increased. This means that a new political and psychological factor has emerged, making both the developments of the situation and all outcome scenarios become more complex and sensitive both domestically and internationally. The 1979 Islamic Revolution ended the monarchy that had existed for more than 2800 years in Iran and forced Shah Pahlavi to exile abroad with his family.
Iran's current situation is unstable inside and not yet peaceful outside. The reason for the wave of protests and protests is people's outrage at rising inflation, currency devaluation, and worsening poverty. Persistent economic and social difficulties that the government has not been successful in overcoming. Iran's current foreign, security, and foreign economic environment is not favorable and stable, and the Iranian government has not significantly improved.
Political and social upheavals in Iran directly affect world oil prices and the global energy supply chain. The longer this situation in Iran lasts, the greater the risk of disruption to the global energy supply chain and the higher oil prices will be. Iran's difficulties both domestically and externally will change the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, North Africa and the Gulf region.
From the current perspective and forecasts, there are 3 scenarios that could happen next in Iran. The first scenario is a wave of protests, protests with both support from the US and current Iranian rivals developing strongly to the point of causing the current Islamic regime to collapse. This scenario has very little prospect of happening because the power, military, police and security apparatus of the Iranian government is still very strong and solid.
The second scenario is that the military along with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards carry out a military coup and come to power. This scenario is also unlikely to happen because the commanders of these armed forces are all built and appointed by religious leaders.
The most likely scenario currently is that the fluctuation will continue for a long time, but then the government will stabilize the situation. The only thing is that if the government then quickly builds a "warm inside, peaceful outside" situation, then the outbreak of the 20th fluctuation is only a matter of time.
