Unnamed European officials said that Houthi leaders are considering more drastic action options, after launching ballistic missiles into Israel last weekend.
The internal leadership of the Houthi is facing disagreements about the level of escalation and this is also part of the reason why this group only participated after about 1 month since the Iranian conflict broke out.
In a statement on March 28, the Houthi said they would continue military operations until the attacks by the US and Israel on Iran and Tehran's allied forces, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, cease. The Houthi did not specify whether they would target oil tankers or other ships passing through the Red Sea.
US and Saudi Arabian officials revealed to European allies that Houthi may want to avoid further escalation and do not want to attack US or Saudi Arabian targets.
However, officials believe that the longer the US-Israel conflict against Iran lasts, the more likely it is that Houthi will target the Red Sea. Houthi may also postpone the decision to maintain "leverage" in exchanges with the US.
An official said that if the US seeks to control Kharg Island - where Iran exports most of its oil - the Houthi may expand attacks.
Any Houthi operation targeting ships in the southern Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait area could continue to strongly disrupt the global energy market.
This route is particularly important after Iran almost blockaded the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict broke out on February 28.
When Hormuz was closed, Saudi Arabia increased crude oil exports from the port of Yanbu in the Red Sea. For oil tankers from here to Asia - Saudi Arabia's largest consumption market - the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is the fastest route. The fact that there is still this alternative route has helped limit the increase in oil prices.
Previously, from the end of 2023, Houthi almost closed the southern Red Sea and Aden Bay areas to Western transport companies, after the conflict in Gaza between Israel and Hamas broke out. The attacks lasted until a ceasefire was achieved in Gaza in October last year.
However, currently, the Houthi are facing complex calculations about the level of involvement in the Iranian conflict, according to officials.
From Tehran's perspective, the threat that Houthi may pose to maritime routes is a "bargaining chip" in any negotiations with the US, while showing the possibility of disrupting the global economy.
Although Iran is the most important supporter, the Houthi do not completely act under direct direction from Tehran. The Houthi have their own strategic calculations and are also cautious about the risk of retaliation from the US or Israel.
Even under pressure from Iran, the Houthi still needs to explain their deeper involvement in the conflict in the context that the economy in the areas controlled by this force is very difficult.
According to the United Nations, about half of Yemen's population is facing severe food shortages.
Officials pointed out that within the Houthi, the hardline faction wants to expand attacks, while more moderate figures oppose this strategy. The attack on Israel last weekend is seen as a compromise solution between factions.
