This week, when Iran released a list of requests to end the conflict with the US and Israel, an unprecedented clause was proposed by Tehran: Recognize Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
Hormuz - a narrow strait, where about 1/5 of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) passes through - has become the strongest "weapon" of the Islamic Republic. Currently, Iran is seeking to turn the Strait of Hormuz into a source of revenue that could bring billions of USD each year, and also a point of pressure on the global economy.
Maritime transport through the Strait of Hormuz is almost paralyzed in the context of the Iranian conflict, causing the global energy market to fluctuate sharply and forcing many countries, including outside the Persian Gulf region, to take emergency measures to ensure fuel supply.
“Iran seems also surprised by the success of its Hormuz strategy, as it is low-cost and relatively easy to "hold hostages" to the global economy. One of the lessons from the conflict is that Iran has discovered this new lever, and is likely to continue to use it in the future," said Dina Esfandiary, Middle East at Bloomberg Economics.
A sign of the increasing strategic importance of Hormuz, in his first speech, Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said that the leverage from blockading the Strait of Hormuz "must continue to be used".
In previous rounds of negotiations with the US, Iran mainly requested easing sanctions and recognizing the right to develop nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, never mentioning controlling the Strait of Hormuz.
Currently, Iran is also signaling its desire to institutionalize this leverage. Iranian parliamentarians are considering a bill requiring countries using the Strait of Hormuz to pay fees for transporting goods and fuel. An advisor to the Iranian Supreme Leader also mentioned the "new regime for Hormuz" after the conflict. This system could allow Tehran to impose maritime restrictions on its rivals and link access to one of the world's most important shipping routes with geopolitical disputes related to this country.
Experts are questioning the feasibility of Iran's ability to establish an international toll collection system, but if successful, revenue could be comparable to the Suez Canal.
Usually, about 20 million barrels of crude oil and oil products pass through the Strait of Hormuz every day, equivalent to about 10 very large oil tankers (VLCC). With a fee estimated at 2 million USD per ship, Iran can earn about 20 million USD/day, equivalent to about 600 million USD/month just for oil alone.
If LNG is included, this figure could increase to more than 800 million USD/month, equivalent to about 15%-20% of Iran's monthly oil export revenue in 2024.
For comparison, the Suez Canal - an artificial waterway controlled by the Egyptian government - usually brings in 700 to 800 million USD per month in normal years, although revenue has decreased sharply last year due to disruptions in the Red Sea.
