Euronews reported that according to European scientists, 2024 will certainly be a record hot year and the first year that the global average temperature exceeds the Paris Agreement target of 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial period.
Data analysis from the World Meteorological Organization shows that the soaring temperatures in 2024 are partly driven by El Nino. In 2025, La Nina could cause global temperatures to drop. However, 2025 is still likely to be one of the three record-breaking hot years, the UK weather and climate agency Met Office warned.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said that La Nina could appear between November 2024 and February 2025. But the cooling effects of La Nina on global temperatures may be least and least in the short term.
Since June 2023, we have seen a particularly long series of sea and land surface temperature increases globally. Even if a short-term cooling La Nina occurs, it will not change the long-term trajectory of global temperature increases due to greenhouse gases retaining heat in the atmosphere, said WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo.
In fact, meteorologists predict extremely high temperatures in 2025, given the possibility of La Nina. Years that are not affected by the warming effects of El Nino like 2025 are typically cooler. 2016 was the year of El Nino and was the year of the hottest global temperature on record at the time. However, 2016 now looks very good compared to our forecast for 2025," warned Professor Adam Scaife, head of global forecasting for 2025 at Met Office.
In its forecast for major weather events in 2025, Fox Weather pointed out that for most of 2024, climate models have predicted La Nina in the central and eastern Pacific. However, the slower-than-expected La Nina process has led climate experts to question the likelihood of an El Nino in 2025.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates that the likelihood of El Nino formation in January-March 2025 is only 1%, with the probability of El Nino occurring in the summer increasing to 20%.
The likelihood of a persistent El Nino forming is on the rise, but it is not guaranteed that this phenomenon will appear in 2025. In general, neutral conditions are predicted to prevail for most of 2025, which could lead to less extreme weather patterns.
The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1, 2025, and runs through November 30. In the 2024 hurricane season, 18 named storms have formed, of which 11 have strengthened into hurricanes and 5 have strengthened into major hurricanes in the Atlantic. An average typhoon season here typically has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
Neutral ENSO conditions have led to intense typhoon seasons in recent years. However, forecasters point out that if El Nino reappears in 2025, storm activity will decrease. However, there is no sign from long-term climate models that the Atlantic basin will have a below-normal 2025 hurricane season.
