The Australian Weather Service said the possibility of La Nina occurring in the coming months has decreased, Reuters reported. The agency also noted that if it does, La Nina will also be weak and short-lived.
"The likelihood of a La Nina phenomenon in the coming months has decreased," the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said in its fortnightly update on October 15.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology stated that its climate model sees La Nina not developing. Along with that, 4 out of 6 other climate models that this agency surveyed also have the same assessment.
Other meteorologists are also predicting the arrival of La Nina. Last week, a US government weather forecaster said there was a 60% chance of La Nina forming by the end of November and will last until January-March 2025. A month earlier, the US weather agency said there was a 71% chance of La Nina forming.
Previously, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said that La Nina will appear in the period from September to November (with a probability of occurring at 60%) and is expected to last until January-February 2025.
La Nina is a phenomenon that affects global weather, marked by cooler-than-average ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The influence of La Nina on weather is most obvious in the winter months of the Northern Hemisphere and has a much weaker influence in the summer.
The occurrence of La Nina and El Nino has great significance for global agriculture, in which La Nina increases rainfall in eastern Australia, Southeast Asia and India but reduces rainfall in the Americas.
A weak La Nina is expected to affect temperatures, rainfall and snow across the United States this winter, according to CNN.
The US Climate Prediction Center (CPC) points out that La Nina has not yet appeared, but there is a 60% chance of occurring in November. When La Nina appears, the effects of La Nina will be recorded throughout the winter and are likely to last until at least the beginning of spring next year.
La Nina or El Nino have never been the only factor affecting the weather in a particular season or location, but these factors are emphasized because they often have a excessive impact on winter weather in the US, especially when too strong, CNN notes.
Previous forecasts from the US Climate Prediction Center (CPC) show that this year's weather will have many typical characteristics of the typical La Nina winter. The entire northern United States is expected to be wetter than normal this winter, especially in the northwest Pacific, the midwest, and some northeastern inland areas.
