There is a 57% chance of La Nina appearing between now and December and is expected to last from January to March 2025, Reuters reported this week, citing information from the US government's forecasting unit.
La Nina is a climate phenomenon characterized by cooler-than-average ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. La Nina is associated with flooding, drought, impacts on global agriculture, and increased hurricane activity in the Caribbean.
La Nina typically leads to less rain and worsens drought conditions. The cycle between El Nino, La Nina and neutral periods typically lasts 2-7 years.
Earlier this week, Japan's weather agency said there appeared to be signs of a La Nina developing as winter approaches, but there was a 60% chance weather conditions would return to normal.
“This La Nina could have a negative impact on crops, affecting food security in some of the world’s poorer countries, such as Somalia, Ethiopia and Sudan,” said Dale Mohler, senior commodity forecaster at AccuWeather.
However, "because this La Nina started slowly and is expected to weaken and subside by late February or March, the crop impacts could be less than those of other La Ninas," forecaster Mohler added.
Fox Weather's La Nina report notes that the world has been in a neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) since early summer. In recent months, cooler-than-average waters have been detected by satellites in the tropical Pacific Ocean, but they have not yet reached the threshold to declare La Nina.
Previously, in early 2024, most weather forecast models predicted that La Nina would appear this year. However, fewer and fewer forecast models are predicting this scenario.
The latest forecast from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) on November 14 said that La Nina will soon appear but will be weak and short-lived. Periods of weaker-than-normal trade winds in the tropics cause the Pacific Ocean to warm slightly, delaying the development of La Nina.
The combination of warming in the Pacific Ocean and results from computer forecast models makes forecasters believe that a strong La Nina is unlikely in the coming months.
La Niña winters are typically colder. The El Niño-affected winter of 2023-24 was one of the warmest, snowiest on record across the United States. This winter is expected to be colder, but widespread record cold is unlikely.
The last time the United States had a colder-than-average winter was 2013-2014. According to NOAA's database, the five coldest winters on record in the United States were 1978-1979, 1935-1936, 1898-1899, 1909-1910, and 1904-1905.
Some forecast models indicate that El Nino could return by 2025. However, the Fox News report notes, climate models don't typically swing abruptly from one extreme to the other.
