There is a 57% chance of La Nina occurring between now and December and is expected to last from January to March 2025, Reuters quoted information from the US Government's forecasting unit this week.
La Nina is a climate phenomenon characterized by cooler-than-average ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. La Nina is associated with flooding, droughts, affecting global agriculture, and increasing hurricane activity in the Caribbean.
La Nina typically leads to less rain and makes droughts worse. The cycle between El Nino, La Nina and the neutral period usually lasts 2-7 years.
Earlier this week, Japan's weather agency said that there appear to be signs that the La Nina phenomenon is developing as winter approaches, but there is a 60% chance that weather conditions will return to normal.
"This La Nina could have a negative impact on crops, affecting food security in some of the world's poorest countries, such as Somalia, Ethiopia and Sudan," said Dale Mohler, senior commodity forecaster at AccuWeather.
However, "as this La Nina starts slowly and is expected to weaken and gradually decrease by the end of February or March, the impact on crops may be less than other La Nina periods," added Forecaster Mohler.
Fox Weather's La Nina report notes that since the beginning of the summer, the world has been in a neutral state of El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In recent months, cooler-than-average waters have been detected by satellites in the tropical Pacific Ocean but have not yet reached the threshold to declare La Nina.
Previously, in early 2024, most weather models predicted that La Nina would appear this year. However, there are fewer and fewer forecast models that offer this scenario.
The latest forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) on November 14 said that La Nina will appear soon but will be weak and short-lived. Weaker-than-normal trade winds in the tropics cause the Pacific Ocean to warm slightly, delaying the development of La Nina.
The combination of warming in the Pacific Ocean and results from computer models makes forecasters believe there is little chance of a strong La Nina in the coming months.
La Nina winters are typically colder. The El Nino-affected winter of 2023-2024 is one of the warmest, least snow-dense winters on record across the United States. This winter is expected to be colder, but there is no chance of widespread record cold.
The last time the United States had an above-average cold winter was 2013-2014. According to NOAA's database, the five coldest winters on record in the US were 1978 1979, 1935 1936, 18,1899, 1909-1910 and 1905.
Some forecast models indicate that El Nino could return by 2025. However, the Fox News report notes that climate models do not typically transition from one extreme to the other.
