The combination of La Nina and climate change has created a "perfect storm", causing catastrophic floods across southern Africa last month, killing 200 people and affecting hundreds of thousands of others.
According to a study published on January 29 by World Weather Attribution (WWA), the intensity of such extreme rain phenomena has increased by about 40% compared to the pre-industrial period.
This is a clear sign that rising ocean temperatures, related to greenhouse gas emissions, are contributing to making the situation worse. In addition, the current La Nina weather cycle makes the impact even more serious.
The terrible flood situation that has lasted since December 2025 has caused great devastation in Mozambique, South Africa, Zimbabwe and Eswatini.
Research shows that some areas have recorded rainfall equivalent to the whole year in just a few days. Many rivers have broken banks, forcing South Africa's Kruger National Park to close, with estimated repair costs of up to millions of USD.
Data shows a clear trend that rains are becoming more intense. This impact is also amplified by La Nina, a phenomenon that previously provided more humid conditions for the region, but now occurs in an atmosphere containing more moisture due to global warming" - WWA pointed out.
La Nina is a phenomenon of sea temperature drop in the central and eastern Pacific regions. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts that this cycle is a weak La Nina, but notes that ocean temperatures are higher than normal due to climate change increasing the risk of floods and droughts.
Climate change caused by humans is energizing rain events like this, creating devastating impacts on affected communities. Our analysis clearly shows that continuing to burn fossil fuels is increasing the intensity of extreme rains, turning them into much more serious disasters" - Izidine Pinto, co-author of senior climate research at the Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute, said.
