La Nina and El Nino are the two main phases of the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, determined based on sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. In addition to these two stages, ENSO also has a third state of neutrality.
Typically, La Nina brings a cooler and wetter winter to the Pacific Northwest region of the United States, while El Nino typically leads to warmer and drier weather.
This winter is still in a weak La Nina state, but experts predict that this model will change soon.
According to Dan Collins - meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Climate Prediction Center, ENSO is likely to switch to a neutral phase within the next 3 months and maintain this state for a while.
However, Mr. Collins said that starting in July, August and September, the possibility of an El Nino occurrence is assessed to be higher than the neutral phase.
Although the forecast for the time is still quite far away, Mr. Collins emphasized that this is not unusual. These phenomena often dont change too quickly. They are long cycles, so they can be predicted for many months, he said.
Although El Nino has not been determined for sure, Mr. Collins affirmed that the possibility of La Nina returning is very low. We believe La Nina is over and there is little chance of a La Nina next year, he added.
However, the appearance of El Nino does not mean that winter will completely avoid extreme weather. The most recent El Nino winter is in 2023-2024. In January 2024 alone, a severe winter storm of ice and snow covered the city of Portland, USA, killing many people.
