The El Nino phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific region is showing signs of rapid development, in the context that La Nina may soon end, paving the way for an El Nino phase from moderate to strong in the summer of 2026 in the Northern Hemisphere.
El Nino is the hot phase of the Southern Oscillation - El Nino (ENSO), which often causes temperatures higher than the average in many regions of the world, increasing the global average temperature monthly and annually, while leading to clear changes in rainfall, with more rain in some places and severe drought in others.
According to meteorologist Ben Noll of the Washington Post, the latest forecasts from the Central European Meteorological Forecasting Center (ECMWF) show that the possibility of forming an El Nino that will cause the Earth to heat up this year is very high.
New signals from ECMWF show that El Nino is developing strongly, with clear changes in wind patterns in the Pacific Ocean, signaling a phase transition process is taking place," he emphasized.
Most current forecasts suggest that El Nino may form in the period from May to July 2026, with intensity from moderate to strong.
ECMWF's latest season forecast models show that La Nina will quickly weaken in the spring, before El Nino develops significantly in the summer" - meteorologist Dylan Federico of WSVN 7 News, USA said.
Meanwhile, the La Nina conditions that have dominated global weather in recent months are forecast to transition to a neutral ENSO state in a short time.
Meteorologist, ENSO expert Eric Webb said that this is one of the fastest La Nina ends he has ever recorded in more than a decade of monitoring this phenomenon.
Some climate scientists believe that even if El Nino in 2026 reaches a strong intensity, the possibility of causing a major global heat shock like the 2023-2024 period is not high.
The current formation process of El Nino is similar to 1997, but many factors may inhibit or weaken this development before reaching extreme levels, said atmospheric scientist Paul Roundy, University of Albany, USA.
This phenomenon is not expected to create a sudden global temperature increase like in the 2023-2024 period, even when El Nino becomes strong. The reason is that high-altitude sea surface temperature models do not support a major hot signal this year" - he analyzed.
However, experts warn that El Nino may still cause many serious weather consequences, especially reduced rainfall in some countries.
El Nino, predicted to occur in 2026, appeared in the context that the Earth had just experienced 3 consecutive record hot years. The 2023-2025 period broke a series of records for global average temperatures by month and by year.
Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather of Berkeley Earth predicts that 2026 and 2027 may continue to record unusually high global average temperatures.
According to him, 2026 is likely to be equivalent to 2023 and 2025, with an increase of about 1.4 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial period, while 2027 may be significantly hotter, depending on the actual dien bien of El Nino.
