The risk of gas shortages is weighing on European economies, which have been pressured by the prolonged cut in Russian gas supplies for more than three years.
Russia's Gazprom has just warned that Europe is entering winter with its lowest gas reserves in nearly a decade, raising the risk of unstable supply for millions of households and businesses.
In a statement posted on Telegram on November 25, Russia's Gazprom said that prolonged or more severe cold weather, combined with reduced gas reserves, could "threaten the ability to supply stable gas to consumers across the EU".
The warning comes as Europe saw record recalls from storage in three days before 21 November, according to data from the European Gas Infrastructure (GIE).
As of November 21, the EU's gas reserves have fallen below 80% - one of the lowest for this time of year in 10 years.
When the gas reserve withdrawal season began on October 13, the warehouses reached only 83% of their capacity. In the two countries with the largest capacity in Europe - Germany and the Netherlands, this figure is even lower, respectively 76% and 72%.
This figure is particularly worrying because EU regulations require gas in underground warehouses to reach at least 90% in the period from October 1 to December 1 every year. This year, that target has not been achieved, as the European winter is forecast to be colder than usual.
Before the Ukraine conflict in 2022, Russian gas accounted for 40% of the EU's total demand. However, after the escalation of tensions, Brussels prioritized cutting back on cheap energy from Russia and switching to importing LNG from the US, Qatar and many other countries.
However, even when it declared fleeing Russia, Europe still had to rely more on Moscow than it wanted. Over the past year, 19,9% of the EU's gas imports have still come from Russia, and some member countries still rely heavily on this supply.
Last month, EU Energy Ministers supported the European Commission's proposal to completely eliminate Russian oil and gas by 2028 as part of the expanded sanctions package. However, analysts say that this is an ambitious goal and has great potential risks, especially when LNG infrastructure and alternative supply are still not stable enough.
Russian President Vladimir Putin recently warned that cutting down on Russian energy is costing the EU with shrinking industrial production, escalating prices and sharply reduced competitiveness. Heavy industries - which depend heavily on energy - are the most directly affected.
Meanwhile, European people and businesses continue to face higher energy bills than before the conflict, not to mention the possibility of gas shortages if the cold winter becomes more severe than expected.
