Russian President Vladimir Putin said a potential energy cooperation deal between Russia and the US could push open the door for Russia to increase gas flows to Europe.
Europe has taken steps to reduce its dependence on Russian gas since the Ukraine conflict and has only received a small portion of its gas via pipeline before. But that has not stopped speculation in recent weeks about the return of Russian gas to Europe as US President Donald Trump has stepped up efforts to end the conflict.
" assuming the US and Russia agree to cooperate in the energy sector, the gas pipeline for Europe can be guaranteed," Putin said at a press conference in Moscow, broadcast on state broadcaster Rossiya 24 on March 13. " And this will benefit Europe because they will get cheap Russian gas," he said.
However, the return of Russian gas to Europe is still a big question mark. The EU is still pursuing a plan to completely end energy imports from Russia by 2027. However, in the context of high energy prices weighing on the economy, many EU countries are reconsidering this decision.
Meanwhile, a peace agreement to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict could be a precondition for energy cooperation. President Putin has affirmed his readiness to negotiate with President Trump on a ceasefire, but stressed that this must be a long-term solution.
Shortly after President Putin's announcement, key gas prices in Europe fell as much as 5% before stabilizing again.
Before the Ukraine conflict, Russia was Europe's largest gas supplier, with many pipelines stretching across countries. However, many contracts have been canceled, and customers such as Germany and Austria have stopped cooperating with Russian oil giant Gazprom.
Nord Stream, a direct gas pipeline between Russia and Germany, was damaged in explosions in September 2022. One of the Nord Stream 2 pipelines remains intact but the system has never been certified by Germany for use.
The restoration of the transit through Ukraine will require long-standing negotiations between Gazprom and Ukraine's Naftogaz partner.
The Kremlin could cut gas prices significantly to regain access to some markets, according to Chris Weafer, managing director of consulting firm Macro-Advisory. However, according to him, returning to the supply level before 2022 is almost impossible.
