Last August, the Ukrainian army stunned Russia when it suddenly advanced across the border and seized about 1,300 square kilometers of Russian territory in Kursk province. This is expected to become a strategic advantage in any peace negotiations.
But now, after months of fierce pressure from the Russian army, Ukraine has only retained about 30% of its occupied area, and the army is retreating after a near-comprehensive defeat in the city of Sudzha.
Politically, the loss of much of the Kursk region could be a shock to President Volodymyr Zelensky and his military advisers. The initial goal of the offensive in Kursk was to stretch Russian forces over Ukraine and create leverage to reclaim at least part of the 20% of the territory controlled by Russia since 2022. But now, it is this trade-off that is being questioned.
Many Ukrainian soldiers and commanders have long questioned the real value of the operation, and those doubts have increased as the Ukrainian army was forced to retreat from Kursk with heavy losses.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed his agreement in principle with the proposal for a 30-day ceasefire from the US, but details still need to be clarified.
However, many Ukrainian commanders are concerned that Russia is deliberately prolonging negotiations until they completely re-ocquer Kursk, causing Ukraine to lose any advantage in negotiations.
Ukrainian forces in Sudzha have fought to clear a retreat from Kursk to Sumy province. However, they face a major risk: Russia's overwhelming advantage in the air makes it possible for Moscow to accurately attack logistics lines, making it extremely difficult to provide food, ammunition and medicine.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in Washington, Russia recaptured about 70% of the territory occupied by Ukraine in the first weeks of the attack on Kursk. Many Ukrainian soldiers are traveling dozens of kilometers to return to Ukrainian territory, while avoiding being chased by Russian troops.
Some soldiers even thought they should have been ordered to withdraw earlier. "We are tired of having to wait under the continuous shelling lane," a Ukrainian soldier said. "All major roads are being monitored by Russian drones, so we have to hide behind the trees to avoid detection."
Many commanders thought the price to pay was too high. Kursk not only consumes the most elite units of Ukraine but also depletes an already lacking arsenal.
The collapse of Sudzha - the largest settlement controlled by Ukraine in Kursk - has created a deep pessimistic atmosphere among the soldiers.
With the defeat in Kursk, Ukraine's priority now is to strengthen defences along the border to prevent the risk of Russia advancing further into their territory. The war cages are being dug urgently, but no one is sure they can be solid enough under pressure from Russia.
"Everything depends on our strength," said a Ukrainian commander.
Ukraine is facing its most difficult time since the conflict broke out. And with the loss of the advantage at the negotiating table, the future of this country has become more uncertain than ever.
