India is likely to increase oil purchases from Russia in the coming months, as domestic refineries are offered a discount of 2 to 2.5 USD per barrel of Urals compared to the standard price of Brent oil.
Kpler's forecast shows that Russian oil imports to India could increase by 6% in October, averaging about 1.7 million barrels per day, despite the US imposing tariffs of up to 25% on most of the country's goods as it continues energy trade with Russia.
Since the conflict in Ukraine escalated in 2022, Russia has become India's top oil supplier, accounting for 34% of the country's total crude oil imports in September, according to Kpler data.
Although the West continued to expand sanctions against Moscow in July, New Delhi has affirmed that it will continue to buy Russian oil if prices are kept below the ceiling of $47 per barrel.
The source said that Indian refiners only sign contracts with un intobilized partners and ensure transportation without the use of sanctioned ships.
The US government has imposed an additional 50% tax on Indian goods, including a 25% penalty directly related to New Delhi's continued import of Russian oil. However, India is determined to defend its stance, considering pressure from Washington as a form of economic forcedness.
In parallel with maintaining supply from Russia, Indian state-owned oil companies are negotiating with producers in the Middle East and Africa to establish long-term deals for next year.
Some experts believe that India's energy demand will continue to increase strongly in the coming decades, and the country is forecast to become the world's largest oil consuming country by 2050.
