Just last month, the Russian Finance Ministry had to lower its expectation of average oil prices in 2025 from $70 to $60/barrel. But with the current developments, that price still seems too optimistic.
According to Prime Newswire, in the oil price scenario around $60, Russia has predicted that the budget deficit could increase further - although still within the GDP threshold of 1%. However, if oil prices continue to slide sharply, Russia's fiscal burden could become much more serious.
In the world market, the situation is also gloomy. RT reported that according to the latest trading data, Brent oil futures for delivery in June 2025 fell below 64 USD/barrel for the first time on the ICE London exchange - this is the lowest level in 4 years. The price decreased by 2.28 USD to 63.30 USD/barrel.
Meanwhile, on April 6, US WTI oil prices also lost $2.20, down to $29.79 - the lowest level since April 2021.
The negative developments in the world oil market began after President Donald Trump announced a wide-ranging countervailing tax on all US trading partners, in which China - the world's largest oil importer - was subject to the highest tax.
Although oil has not been included in the sanctions list, the market is still reacting strongly to the risk of a global recession. Oil prices fell 7% on April 4 as China retaliated with a 34% import tax on US goods.
Expert Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, commented: It is difficult to see a stop for oil price declines, unless Mr. Trump signals to cool down tensions. Otherwise, panic will continue to dominate the market.
While the market has not yet recovered, OPEC+ has made the situation worse when it announced that it will increase production sharply from May. According to the announcement on April 3, 8 OPEC+ member countries will increase production by 411,000 barrels/day - 3 times the original plan.
This move, according to experts quoted by TASS, shows that OPEC+ believes the market is still stable enough to reopen the valve, despite falling prices.
The current oil price movement is not just a technical problem or a supply-demand problem. It reflects greater concern a world that is entering a cycle of prolonged uncertainty, where sudden policy changes could disrupt all fiscal calculations from the US to Russia.
