Vietnam and Southeast Asia could see higher-than-normal rainfall in the coming months, threatening further disruption to agriculture, tourism and industrial output in a region already hit by a series of storms in 2024, Bloomberg reported.
Forecasters predict higher-than-normal rainfall from the Philippines to Vietnam from now until November, largely due to a La Nina pattern - a phenomenon that moves warm water to the western Pacific Ocean and brings more rain.
More rain could hamper recovery efforts in Vietnam, which was hit by Typhoon Yagi in September - the worst storm to hit Vietnam in decades, causing damage of up to VND40 trillion (US$1.7 billion).
Thailand is also facing up to 30 billion baht ($890 million) in damage from flooding in the north. The Philippines has been hit by several deadly storms in recent months, including Typhoon Gaemi in July, Typhoon Yagi in September and Typhoon Krathon in October.
"La Nina is predicted to occur from October to November 2024 onwards and is one of the contributing factors to the possibility of heavier than normal rainfall across several countries in the region," said the ASEAN Specialised Centre for Meteorology.
Singapore issued a flood warning on October 14 as the changing seasons brought thunder and showers to the tiny island nation.
The Philippine weather agency predicts that much of the archipelago could see above-average rainfall through the end of 2024, with January seeing 160 percent above average rainfall.
Vietnam will see higher-than-average rainfall, including in the north, with the central region likely to see up to five floods through March next year, the Vietnam National Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting Center said.
Vietnam could also see more storms than usual through April next year, potentially causing heavy rains with the risk of flooding and landslides, according to Takahisa Nishikawa, chief forecaster at The Weather Company.
The World Meteorological Organization predicts a 60% chance of a La Nina event by the end of 2024. Warmer sea surface temperatures also contribute to the development of storms. Research by scientists in the United States and Singapore shows that a warming climate is expected to increase the likelihood of storms forming and intensifying near Southeast Asian coasts, such as the South China Sea.
"Tropical cyclones will become stronger because the basic theory is clear: higher ocean temperatures," said Benjamin Horton, director of the Earth Observatory of Singapore, who was involved in the study.
"The warmer the oceans, the more energy there is for tropical storms to become bigger, stronger, and more intense. Places like Taiwan (China) and Vietnam could see more super typhoons," Horton noted.
