Vietnam and Southeast Asia could see higher-than-normal rainfall in the coming months, threatening to further disrupt agriculture, tourism and industrial output in the region that has been hit by a series of typhoons in 2024 - Bloomberg reported.
Forecasters predict higher than normal rainfall from the Philippines to Vietnam from now until November, largely due to the La Nina phenomenon - the phenomenon of moving warm water to the western Pacific Ocean and bringing more rain.
More rain could hamper recovery efforts in Vietnam, which was hit by super typhoon No. 3 Yagi in September - the worst storm to hit Vietnam in decades, causing damage of up to 40 trillion VND.
Thailand is also facing losses of up to 30 billion baht ($890 million) due to flooding in the north. The Philippines has been struggling with a number of deadly typhoons in recent months, including Typhoon Gaemi in July, Typhoon Yagi in September and Typhoon Krathon in October.
"La Nina is expected to occur from October to November 2024 onwards and is one of the contributing factors to the possibility of heavier than normal rainfall across several countries in the region," the ASEAN Meteorological Express Center said.
Singapore issued a flood warning on October 14 as the changing seasons bring thunder and showers to the small island nation.
The Philippine weather agency predicts that most of the archipelago may see above-average rainfall through the end of 2024 and 160% above average in January.
The Vietnam National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said that Vietnam will have higher-than-average rainfall, including in the North. The Central region is likely to see up to five floods through March next year.
According to Mr. Takahisa Nishikawa, head of forecasting at The Weather Company, Vietnam could also experience more typhoons than usual until April next year, which could cause heavy rain with the risk of flooding and landslides.
The World Meteorological Organization predicts a 60% chance of a La Nina event by the end of 2024. Warmer sea surface temperatures also contribute to the development of storms. Research by scientists in the US and Singapore shows that warming climates are expected to increase the likelihood of forming and intensifying storms near the Southeast Asian coast, such as the East Sea.
"Tropical cyclones will get stronger because the basic theory is very clear: higher ocean temperatures" - said Benjamin Horton, director of the Earth Observatory of Singapore, who was involved in the study.
"The warmer the oceans, the more energy there is for tropical cyclones to become larger, stronger, and more intense. Places like Taiwan (China) and Vietnam could see more super typhoons," Horton noted.
